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Current Wind Speed 45 knots / 50 MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 45 knots / 50 MPH at
Spaghetti models for KENNETH can be found here:
KENNETH spaghetti models page »
000 WTPZ33 KNHC 210232 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kenneth Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 20 2023 ...KENNETH TURNS NORTHWESTWARD... ...FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 125.2W ABOUT 1075 MI...1730 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kenneth was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 125.2 West. Kenneth is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest and north at a slightly slower forward speed is expected Thursday and Thursday night. A northward motion is forecast to continue through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast to begin on Thursday. Kenneth could degenerate into a remnant low by late Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Public Advisory not available for this storm.
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 210232 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 20 2023 It appears that southerly mid-level shear has set in over Kenneth during the day, and the surface center is now located on the southern side of the ongoing convective mass. Dvorak final-T numbers are a consensus 3.0 from TAFB and SAB, so the initial intensity remains 45 kt. The shear appears to have pulled Kenneth's center farther to the north, and as a result, the storm has turned northwestward with an initial motion of 310/10 kt. A turn toward the north-northwest and north is expected over the next 36 hours as Kenneth moves around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. Partly because of the required adjustment of the initial position, the track guidance has shifted significantly to the north and east on this cycle. The new NHC track forecast lies very close to the GFS, ECMWF, TVCE, and HCCA aids, particularly during the first 36 hours of the forecast, and is as much as 30-40 n mi to the right of the previous prediction. As is often the case, the mid-level shear affecting the cyclone was not foreseen, as nearly all shear diagnostics show that the shear in a deeper layer of the atmosphere is currently very low. That said, even the deep-layer shear is forecast to increase to moderate-to-strong levels in the next 12-24 hours. Simultaneously, Kenneth will be moving over increasingly cooler waters that are less than 26 degrees Celsius. Therefore, weakening is expected to begin by 24 hours, and strong shear and a drier, more stable atmosphere should cause Kenneth to degenerate into a remnant low by late Friday. The remnant low could hang around for a few days, opening up into a trough by Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 16.9N 125.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 17.6N 126.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 19.0N 126.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 20.7N 126.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 22.1N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 23/1200Z 23.1N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/0000Z 23.8N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Time | Speed | Location | Status |
---|---|---|---|
45 knots | 16.9, -125.2 | ||
45 knots | 17.6, -126.0 | ||
40 knots | 19.0, -126.8 | ||
35 knots | 20.7, -126.9 | ||
30 knots | 22.1, -126.8 | POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE | |
25 knots | 23.1, -126.8 | POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE | |
25 knots | 23.8, -127.2 | POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE | |
0 knots | translation missing: en.DISSIPATED |
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