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KENNETH Current Status

...KENNETH TURNS NORTHWESTWARD... ...FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...

Current Wind Speed 45 knots / 50 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 45 knots / 50 MPH at

KENNETH Land Hazards

México
Avisos y Alertas
Guatemala
Boletín Meteorológico Informativo
Belize
El Salvador
Informes Especiales

KENNETH Tracker

KENNETH Satellite Loop

visible satellite loop of Tropical Storm KENNETH from wisc.edu

visible satellite loop of Tropical Storm KENNETH from wisc.edu

KENNETH Alternate Tracking Map

KENNETH Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for KENNETH can be found here:

KENNETH spaghetti models page »

KENNETH Watches and Warnings

Tropical Storm KENNETH Tropical Cyclone Update

Tropical Storm KENNETH Public Advisory

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 210232
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kenneth Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132023
800 PM PDT Wed Sep 20 2023
 
...KENNETH TURNS NORTHWESTWARD...
...FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 125.2W
ABOUT 1075 MI...1730 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kenneth was
located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 125.2 West.  Kenneth is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A turn toward 
the north-northwest and north at a slightly slower forward speed is 
expected Thursday and Thursday night.  A northward motion is 
forecast to continue through Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Weakening is forecast to begin on Thursday.  Kenneth could 
degenerate into a remnant low by late Friday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Tropical Storm KENNETH Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 210232
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132023
800 PM PDT Wed Sep 20 2023
 
It appears that southerly mid-level shear has set in over Kenneth 
during the day, and the surface center is now located on the 
southern side of the ongoing convective mass.  Dvorak final-T 
numbers are a consensus 3.0 from TAFB and SAB, so the initial 
intensity remains 45 kt.

The shear appears to have pulled Kenneth's center farther to the 
north, and as a result, the storm has turned northwestward with an 
initial motion of 310/10 kt.  A turn toward the north-northwest and 
north is expected over the next 36 hours as Kenneth moves around 
the western periphery of the subtropical ridge.  Partly because of 
the required adjustment of the initial position, the track guidance 
has shifted significantly to the north and east on this cycle.  The 
new NHC track forecast lies very close to the GFS, ECMWF, TVCE, and 
HCCA aids, particularly during the first 36 hours of the forecast, 
and is as much as 30-40 n mi to the right of the previous 
prediction.

As is often the case, the mid-level shear affecting the cyclone was 
not foreseen, as nearly all shear diagnostics show that the shear in 
a deeper layer of the atmosphere is currently very low.  That said, 
even the deep-layer shear is forecast to increase to 
moderate-to-strong levels in the next 12-24 hours.  Simultaneously, 
Kenneth will be moving over increasingly cooler waters that are less 
than 26 degrees Celsius.  Therefore, weakening is expected to begin 
by 24 hours, and strong shear and a drier, more stable atmosphere 
should cause Kenneth to degenerate into a remnant low by late 
Friday.  The remnant low could hang around for a few days, opening 
up into a trough by Sunday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0300Z 16.9N 125.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 17.6N 126.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 19.0N 126.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  22/1200Z 20.7N 126.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  23/0000Z 22.1N 126.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  23/1200Z 23.1N 126.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  24/0000Z 23.8N 127.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

KENNETH storm path from NHC

Time Speed Location Status
45 knots 16.9, -125.2
45 knots 17.6, -126.0
40 knots 19.0, -126.8
35 knots 20.7, -126.9
30 knots 22.1, -126.8 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
25 knots 23.1, -126.8 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
25 knots 23.8, -127.2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
0 knots translation missing: en.DISSIPATED


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