Cyclocane

( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )

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This is the final warning / advisory for this storm as it has weakened below warning levels and/or the storm system is no longer a tropical cyclone.

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KENNETH Current Status

Current Wind Speed 75 knots / 86 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 75 knots / 86 MPH at

KENNETH Land Hazards

Maurice / Mauritius / Rodrigues / Agalega
Welcome to Mauritius Meteorological Services | Monthly climate bulletin for March 2019
La Réunion

KENNETH Tracker

KENNETH Satellite Loop

KENNETH Alternate Tracking Map

KENNETH Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for KENNETH can be found here:

KENNETH spaghetti models page »

KENNETH Watches and Warnings

TROPICAL CYCLONE KENNETH Tropical Cyclone Update

TROPICAL CYCLONE KENNETH Public Advisory

WTXS31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNING NR 012    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251800Z --- NEAR 12.3S 40.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 40.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 12.5S 39.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 12.8S 38.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 13.0S 38.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 39.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 594 NM
NORTH OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DRASTIC WEAKENING, WARMING, AND 
SHRINKING OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION OF TC 24S. THE INITIAL POSITION 
IS BASED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON TURNING IN THE EIR LOOP, WHICH IS 
OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AND A 251557Z 
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH REVEALS A SMALL BALL OF REMAINING 
DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS OVER LAND. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED 
AT 75 KNOTS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RAPID DISSOLUTION OF 
CONVECTION AND STRUCTURE OVER LAND. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 
FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR, WITH MODERATE BUT WEAKENING DIVERGENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER, LAND 
INTERACTION WILL DOMINATE AND QUICKLY WEAKEN TC 24S. TC 24S IS 
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN ALONG THE NORTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO ITS SOUTH THROUGH TAU 
24. AFTER TAU 24, THE STR IS FORECAST TO ERODE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
DEEPENS TO THE SOUTH, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD TO 
SOUTHWARD DRIFT WHILE STILL OVER LAND. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY 
THAT THE SYSTEM MAY TRACK BACK OVER WATER AFTER TAU 72, HOWEVER, THE 
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY BY THAT TIME, AND 
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN WALKING TOWARDS THE WEST, FAVORING THE 
REMNANTS OF TC 24S STAYING OVER LAND FOR LONGER. OVERALL, THERE IS 
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING 
ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION AFTER TAU 24 
AS REFLECTED IN THE LARGE SPREAD OF DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 
24. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) 
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KENNETH Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.

KENNETH storm path from JTWC

Time Speed Location Status
75 knots -12.3, 40.1 dissipating
55 knots -12.5, 39.2 dissipating
35 knots -12.8, 38.7 dissipating
25 knots -13.0, 38.5 dissipated


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