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Current View of the Northwest Pacific Basin

Tropical Outlook

Per current tropical weather outlooks, the highest current potential of a new tropical cyclone in this basin is medium.

Northwest Pacific Active Storms

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN


1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
         A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
            (1) AT 19OCT20 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WAS 
      LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 126.1E, APPROXIMATELY 297 NM EAST OF MANILA, 
      PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE 
      PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 
      KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 192100) FOR 
      FURTHER DETAILS.
            (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
         B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
            (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
      NEAR 22.6N 139.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 138.8E, APPROXIMATELY 
      140 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
      AND A 191930Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A REGION OF CONVECTIVE 
      BANDING AROUND A SMALL, DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OBSCURED BY 
      DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. INVEST 97W IS IN A MARGINALLY 
      FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW 
      ALOFT, WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, ONLY OFFSET BY 
      MODERATE-HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS 
      INDICATE INVEST 97W WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SLIGHT 
      INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS 19W MOVES WEST. MAXIMUM 
      SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
      LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
      THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
      HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
            (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
         C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.


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