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MANGKHUT Current Status

Current Wind Speed 70 knots / 81 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 70 knots / 81 MPH at 2018-09-16T12:00:00.000Z

MANGKHUT Land Hazards

Northwest Pacific Weather Warnings

Taiwan Central Weather Bureau: no warnings
Hong Kong Observatory: no warnings
China Meteorological Administration: no warnings

MANGKHUT Tracker

MANGKHUT Satellite Loop

MANGKHUT Alternate Tracking Map

MANGKHUT Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for MANGKHUT can be found here:

MANGKHUT spaghetti models page »

MANGKHUT Watches and Warnings

TYPHOON MANGKHUT Tropical Cyclone Update

TYPHOON MANGKHUT Public Advisory

WTPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT) WARNING NR 039    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161200Z --- NEAR 22.1N 111.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.1N 111.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 23.0N 108.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 23.9N 106.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 24.9N 104.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 25.8N 102.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 111.0E.
TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 134 NM WEST OF HONG
KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A STILL EXPANSIVE SYSTEM THAT HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CONVECTION 
NEAR ITS CENTER, WHICH IS NOW OVER LAND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS 
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
161100Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWING THE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS 
FROM YANGJIANG, 21 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST, READING 17 KTS AND 971 MB. 
WITHOUT TERRAIN AND FRICTIONAL LAND EFFECTS, 971 MB WOULD SUPPORT A 
69 KT SUSTAINED WINDSPEED. TY 26W IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, ALLOWING IT TO 
SUSTAIN SOME DEEP CONVECTION WHILE IT TRACKS OVER LAND. THE CYCLONE 
IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. TY 26W 
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE 
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR AND WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER LAND IN 
SOUTHERN CHINA. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. AFTER TAU 24, MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE, WITH THE 
ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND HWRF RECURVING THE WEAKENING CYCLONE FURTHER TO 
THE NORTH AROUND THE STR AXIS, AND THE BULK OF THE MODELS CONTINUING 
THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO CLOSE 
TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, AND CALLS FOR 26W TO DISSIPATE AFTER 
TAU 36. BASED ON INCREASING TRACK UNCERTAINTY BEYOND TAU 24, 
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HIGH THROUGH TAU 24 AND 
FAIR AFTERWARD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE 
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY 
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

TYPHOON MANGKHUT Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.

MANGKHUT storm path from JTWC

Time	Speed	Location	Status
2018-09-16T12:00:00.000Z	70 knots	22.1, 111.8	dissipating
2018-09-17T00:00:00.000Z	50 knots	23.0, 108.8	dissipating
2018-09-17T12:00:00.000Z	35 knots	23.9, 106.2	dissipating
2018-09-18T00:00:00.000Z	25 knots	24.9, 104.0	dissipating
2018-09-18T12:00:00.000Z	15 knots	25.8, 102.2	dissipated

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