Cyclocane
( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )
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This is the final warning / advisory for this storm as it has weakened below warning levels and/or the storm system is no longer a tropical cyclone.
KAY Current Status
...KAY IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...
Current Wind Speed 35 knots / 40 MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 35 knots / 40 MPH at
KAY Land Hazards
- WIND - Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field are occurring across portions of southern California and extreme southwestern Arizona. For information on this wind hazard, users should see High Wind Warnings and other products from their local NWS Weather Forecast Office.
- RAINFALL - Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals:
- Baja California - Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maxima of 6 inches. Event total rainfall 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15 inches
- Western Sonora - Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 4 inches. Event total rainfall 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 8 inches
- Southernmost California - 2 to 4 inches with isolated maxima of 6 to 8 inches
- SURF - Swells generated by Kay are still affecting the coast of southern California and the northern Baja California peninsula. These swells should subside on Saturday.
KAY Tracker
KAY Satellite Loop
KAY Alternate Tracking Map
KAY Spaghetti Models
Spaghetti models for KAY can be found here:
KAY Watches and Warnings
Post-Tropical Cyclone KAY Tropical Cyclone Update
Post-Tropical Cyclone KAY Public Advisory
000 WTPZ32 KNHC 100239 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Kay Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 09 2022 ...KAY IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.3N 118.9W ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning from Cabo San Quintin to the U.S./Mexico border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southern California should consult products from your local weather office. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Kay was located near latitude 31.3 North, longitude 118.9 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn to the southwest and then the south is expected this weekend and early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field are occurring across portions of southern California and extreme southwestern Arizona. For information on this wind hazard, users should see High Wind Warnings and other products from their local NWS Weather Forecast Office. RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: Baja California: Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maxima of 6 inches. Event total rainfall 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15 inches Western Sonora: Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 4 inches. Event total rainfall 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 8 inches Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with isolated maxima of 6 to 8 inches Sierra Nevada, Arizona, and Southern Nevada: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 3 inches These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides possible across mountainous areas of Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Kay are still affecting the coast of southern California and the northern Baja California peninsula. These swells should subside on Saturday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Kay. For additional information on the post-tropical cyclone please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Public Advisory not available for this storm.
Post-Tropical Cyclone KAY Forecast Discussion
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 100239 TCDEP2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Kay Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 09 2022 Kay has been devoid of deep convection just about all day (about the past 15 hours), and it no longer meets the organized deep convection criteria needed for a tropical cyclone. Therefore, Kay is now considered a post-tropical cyclone, and since all coastal tropical storm warnings have been discontinued, this is the last advisory on this system. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt. The low has now turned to the west-northwest, and a turn to the southwest and then the south is expected this weekend and early next week as the cyclone weakens while moving within the low-level flow. Even though Kay is no longer a tropical cyclone, this system is still producing heavy rains across portions of northern Baja California and southern California. In addition, strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field are still occurring across portions of southern California and extreme southwestern Arizona. For more information on the wind hazard, see products from your local NWS Weather Forecast Office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 31.3N 118.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 10/1200Z 31.4N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 11/0000Z 31.4N 120.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/1200Z 31.2N 121.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/0000Z 30.5N 122.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/1200Z 29.6N 121.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0000Z 29.0N 121.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
KAY storm path from NHC
| Time | Speed | Location | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 knots | 31.3, -118.9 | translation missing: en.POST-TROPICAL | |
| 30 knots | 31.4, -120.0 | POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE | |
| 25 knots | 31.4, -120.9 | POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE | |
| 25 knots | 31.2, -121.8 | POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE | |
| 20 knots | 30.5, -122.1 | POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE | |
| 20 knots | 29.6, -121.9 | POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE | |
| 20 knots | 29.0, -121.2 | POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE | |
| 0 knots | translation missing: en.DISSIPATED |
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