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This is the final warning / advisory for this storm as it has weakened below warning levels and/or the storm system is no longer a tropical cyclone.

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This storm is unnamed. If the information appears to be out of date, its name may have changed, so visit the main page for the latest information.

FOURTEEN Current Status

Current Wind Speed 40 knots / 46 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 40 knots / 46 MPH at

FOURTEEN Land Hazards

Maurice / Mauritius / Rodrigues / Agalega
Welcome to the Meteorological Services | December 2020 Climate bulletin
La Réunion

FOURTEEN Tracker

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FOURTEEN Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for FOURTEEN can be found here:

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FOURTEEN Watches and Warnings

TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN Tropical Cyclone Update

TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN Public Advisory

WTXS33 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 002    
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 120.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 120.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 20.6S 120.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 21.5S 121.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 22.6S 123.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 120.7E.
22JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
118 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS 
PEAKED AND IS ON A WEAKENING TREND, WITH DEEP CYCLING CONVECTION 
BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTH, AND PARTIALLY OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED RADAR DATA FROM THE BROOME AND 
PORT HEDLAND RADARS INDICATED A VERY WEAK ROTATION CROSSING THE 
SHORE NEAR SANDFIRE, AUSTRALIA, BUT THE SIGNATURE IS NOT CONCLUSIVE 
AND THUS LENDS ONLY LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, 
HEDGED UPWARDS FROM A PGTW T2.5 (35 KT) DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY 
ESTIMATE IN LINE WITH AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T2.8. TC 14S IS IN THE 
PROCESS OF MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA AT 
THE 220000Z HOUR, AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING INLAND ALONG THE 
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE 
EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY, BUT SLOWLY, WEAKEN OVER THE GREAT 
SANDY DESERT AND DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36, THOUGH 
REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING INLAND 
INTO WEST-CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO, BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE 
INITIAL POSITION, AND THE RESULTING POSSIBILITY OF A LONGER PERIOD 
OF TIME OVER WATER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. 
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z
IS 14 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S 
(THIRTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.

FOURTEEN storm path from JTWC

Time Speed Location Status
40 knots -19.7, 120.6
35 knots -20.6, 120.9 dissipating
35 knots -21.5, 121.6 dissipating
30 knots -22.6, 123.0 dissipated


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