Cyclocane

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FLORENCE Current Status

Current Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 40 knots / 45 MPH at 2018-09-21T06:00:00.000Z

Current Watches/Warnings / Radar / Satellite

current US watches/warnings

live tornado/thunderstorm tracker - tornadohq

future radar imagery - my future radar

current radar loop

future radar imagery

(above image is an example of the Western North Atlantic page - see Atlantic future radar page for a full set of images)

If a tropical storm or hurricane is threatening land, you can check my future radar for an idea of what radar might look like as the storm approaches.

FLORENCE Land Hazards

• RAINFALL - Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive rainfall in the following areas...
• TORNADOES - A few tornadoes remain possible across southeast North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina today and tonight.

FLORENCE Tracker

FLORENCE Satellite Loop

FLORENCE Alternate Tracking Map

FLORENCE Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for FLORENCE can be found here:

FLORENCE spaghetti models page »

FLORENCE Watches and Warnings

Tropical Depression FLORENCE Tropical Cyclone Update

Tropical Depression FLORENCE Public Advisory

ZCZC NFDTCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KWNH DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Florence Advisory Number  69
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   AL062018
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...FLORENCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER
MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. FLASH
FLOODING AND MAJOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER A SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 81.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Flash flood warnings are currently in effect across a large portion
of southeastern North Carolina and portions of far northeastern
South Carolina.

Flash flood watches are in effect across much of North
Carolina...northern South Carolina and portions of Southwest
Virginia.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Florence was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 81.8 West.
The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through the day on
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Southeastern...Central and western North Carolina...far northern
South Carolina into far southwest Virginia...

Southeastern North Carolina and far northeast South Carolina:

Additional 3 to 6 inches of rain...with isolated maximum of 8
inches possible...with storm total accumulations of 30 to
40 inches likely.  These rainfall amounts will produce
catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river
flooding.

Central and Western North Carolina...far northern South Carolina and
far southwest Virginia:

Additional 5 to 10 inches of rain, with storm total accumulations of
15 to 20 inches likely.  These rainfall amounts will produce flash
flooding and an elevated risk for landslides in western North
Carolina and far southwest Virginia.

West-central Virginia:

2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.  This rainfall will result in
flash flooding and potentially lead to some river flooding.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes remain possible across southeast North
Carolina and northeastern South Carolina today and tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Oravec

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 34.0N  81.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 35.3N  82.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  17/1200Z 37.8N  83.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 36H  18/0000Z 39.7N  80.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/1200Z 40.7N  76.1W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/1200Z 42.3N  64.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  20/1200Z 44.2N  50.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  21/1200Z 46.1N  38.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

NNNN

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Tropical Depression FLORENCE Forecast Discussion

635 
WTNT41 KNHC 160848
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Florence Discussion Number  68
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

Surface observations indicate that there are no longer any
sustained tropical-storm-force winds as the center of Florence has
moved farther inland over South Carolina.  Therefore, the system is
being downgraded to a tropical depression at this time.  Maximum
winds are estimated to be 30 kt.  Continued gradual weakening is
likely, and the numerical guidance suggests that the cyclone
will be disorganized enough to become a remnant low in 36 hours or
so.  In 72 hours, global models indicate that the system will
become an extratropical cyclone, with some strengthening due to
baroclinic processes as it moves over the Atlantic in 3-5 days.
This scenario is very similar to that from the previous advisory.

The forward speed of Florence has increased somewhat early this
morning and the motion is now near 280/7 kt.  The high pressure
system that has been blocking the forward progress of Florence is
predicted to slide eastward and southeastward during the next day
or so.  As a result, over the next couple of days, Florence is
expected to move northwestward, northward, and then
north-northeastward around the periphery of the high.  Later in the
forecast period, Florence should accelerate east-northeastward in
the mid-latitude westerlies.  The official track forecast is similar
to the previous one and close to the dynamical model consensus.

This will be the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Florence.  Future information on Florence can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning
at 11 AM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH,
and on the web at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.


Key Messages:

1.  Life-threatening, catastrophic flash floods and prolonged
significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas
and the southern to central Appalachians from western North Carolina
into west-central Virginia and far eastern West Virginia through
early this week, as Florence continues to move slowly inland.  In
addition to the flash flood and flooding threat, landslides are also
possible in the higher terrain of the southern and central
Appalachians across western North Carolina into southwest Virginia.

2. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast,
and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week,
resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0900Z 33.8N  81.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  16/1800Z 34.7N  82.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  17/0600Z 36.7N  83.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  17/1800Z 38.7N  82.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/0600Z 39.8N  79.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/0600Z 42.0N  68.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  20/0600Z 43.5N  55.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  21/0600Z 46.0N  40.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

FLORENCE storm path from NHC

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