Cyclocane

( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )

Ferdinand Storm Tracker

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Other future tropical cyclones:


Current View of the South Pacific Basin

Tropical Outlook

Per current tropical weather outlooks, the highest current potential of a new tropical cyclone in this basin is medium.

South Pacific Active Storms

No active storms


2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
         A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
         B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
            (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
      NEAR 10.7S 177.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0S 176.5W, APPROXIMATELY 
      382 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
      INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 170946Z METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE 
      IMAGE DEPICT AN EXTENSIVE, ELONGATED AREA OF FRAGMENTED CONVECTION 
      EXTENDING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED, WEAK LOW 
      LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. INVEST 96P IS EXPERIENCING GOOD POLEWARD 
      OUTFLOW, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW (<15KTS) 
      VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT SEVERAL OF THOSE 
      EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS MAY GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY AS 
      THEY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD. INVEST 96P IS PLACED IN A LIKELY REGION 
      FOR ONE OF THOSE CIRCULATIONS TO CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
      SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
      PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
      DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
      HOURS IS MEDIUM.
            (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
         C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
            (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
      NEAR 15.6S 170.7W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.1S 167.1W, APPROXIMATELY 
      352 NM SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
      INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AREA OF CIRCULATION 
      WITH POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE 
      SOUTHEAST. A 171739Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A DEFINED, 
      BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 172053Z ASCAT-B SHOWS 
      STRONG (45-50 KT) ASYMMETRIC WINDS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LLCC 
      WITH MODERATE (20-25 KT) WINDS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE. ENVIRONMENTAL 
      ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING GOOD EQUATORWARD AND 
      POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND 
      VERY HIGH (40-50 KTS) VERTICAL, IN-PHASE, WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS 
      AGREE THE LLCC WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL 
      CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 
      KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994 MB. 
      THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
      WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
            (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.


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