Cyclocane

WTXS31 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND) WARNING NR 023    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   290600Z --- NEAR 15.6S 111.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 111.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 15.2S 110.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 111.2E.
29FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (FERDINAND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
432 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED 
NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO 
WEAKEN AS EVIDENCED BY RAPIDLY ERODING CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT IS 
SHEARED, PARTIALLY EXPOSING A WEAK AND RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. 
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 
ABOVE ANIMATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK 
ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE 
290129Z ASCAT DIRECT PASS SHOWING 35KT WIND BARBS MAX. ANALYSES 
INDICATE MODERATE 20-KT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL 
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE SOUTHWEST HAVE OFFSET THE RADIAL OUTFLOW 
AND WARM SSTS. THE OVERALL HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST AND LEAD 
TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 12. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE WIDELY SPREAD, AN 
INDICATION OF A WEAK VORTEX. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC 
TRACK FORECAST THAT IS BASED ON THE CURRENT STORM MOTION. THIS IS THE 
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR 
HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. 
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 12 FEET.
NNNN

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FERDINAND Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.

FERDINAND storm path from JTWC

Time	Speed	Location	Status
2020-03-29T06:00:00.000Z	35 knots	-15.6, 111.3	dissipating
2020-03-29T18:00:00.000Z	30 knots	-15.2, 110.9	dissipated

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