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CHANTAL Current Status

...CHANTAL WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...

Current Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH at

Current Watches/Warnings / Radar / Satellite

current US watches/warnings

current radar loop

future radar imagery

(above image is an example of the Western North Atlantic page - see Atlantic future radar page for a full set of images)

If a tropical storm or hurricane is threatening land, you can check my future radar for an idea of what radar might look like as the storm approaches.

CHANTAL Land Hazards

NWS Local Hurricane Statements

CHANTAL Tracker

CHANTAL Satellite Loop

CHANTAL Alternate Tracking Map

CHANTAL Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for CHANTAL can be found here:

CHANTAL spaghetti models page »

CHANTAL Watches and Warnings

Tropical Depression CHANTAL Tropical Cyclone Update

Tropical Depression CHANTAL Public Advisory

255 
WTNT34 KNHC 220232
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Chantal Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042019
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 21 2019

...CHANTAL WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.4N 47.4W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Chantal
was located near latitude 39.4 North, longitude 47.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the east-southeast near 18 mph (30
km/h), and a turn toward the southeast with a decrease in forward
speed is expected by Friday.  Chantal is forecast to slow further
and turn southward Friday night then drift clock-wise southwestward
to west-northwestward over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Further weakening is anticipated, and Chantal is
forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by Friday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Tropical Depression CHANTAL Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT44 KNHC 220232
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042019
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 21 2019

Chantal's cloud pattern has become quite ragged during the past
several hours with a shrinking intermittently bursting convective
mass remaining sheared to the east of the surface center.  The
initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt and is in agreement with a
recent 0020 UTC ASCAT-A overpass and the subjective satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.

There are no changes to the philosophy of the intensity forecast.
Further weakening is forecast through the period as the depression
continues moving through an inhibiting, high statically stable
surrounding environment.  The official forecast calls for Chantal
to degenerate into a remnant low by Friday night, if not sooner,
and is based primarily on the deterministic models.

The initial motion is estimated to be east-southeastward, or 105/16
kt, within the deep-layer mid-latitude westerlies.  Chantal is
forecast to turn southeastward to southward, around the
eastern periphery of a subtropical high, with a reduction in
forward speed, over the next couple of days.  By Saturday night, the
remnants of Chantal is likely to turn toward the west-northwest as
high pressure near the Azores Islands builds to the east of the
cyclone.  The NHC track forecast is a compromise of the TVCA
multi-model guidance and the NOAA HFIP corrected consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 39.4N  47.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 38.8N  44.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 37.9N  42.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 36.8N  41.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 35.9N  41.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/0000Z 35.8N  42.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

CHANTAL storm path from NHC

Time Speed Location Status
30 knots 39.4, -47.4
30 knots 38.8, -44.9
30 knots 37.9, -42.6
30 knots 36.8, -41.4
25 knots 35.9, -41.5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
20 knots 35.8, -42.9 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
0 knots translation missing: en.DISSIPATED


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