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CARLOS Current Status

...CARLOS BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...

Current Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH at

CARLOS Land Hazards

México
Avisos y Alertas
Guatemala
Boletín Meteorológico Informativo
Belize
El Salvador
Informes Especiales

CARLOS Tracker

CARLOS Satellite Loop

CARLOS Alternate Tracking Map

CARLOS Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for CARLOS can be found here:

CARLOS spaghetti models page »

CARLOS Watches and Warnings

Tropical Depression CARLOS Tropical Cyclone Update

Tropical Depression CARLOS Public Advisory

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 160831
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Carlos Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032021
1100 PM HST Tue Jun 15 2021
 
...CARLOS BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.2N 135.0W
ABOUT 1910 MI...3075 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Carlos
was located near latitude 9.2 North, longitude 135.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Carlos is expected to degenerate into a remnant low later 
today and dissipate in a few days.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Tropical Depression CARLOS Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 160835
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032021
1100 PM HST Tue Jun 15 2021
 
Carlos has maintained a small area of deep convection to the south 
and northeast of the well-defined low-level center of circulation. 
However, the convection has decreased in coverage and has become 
more linear over the past 3 h. Despite the ragged convective 
appearance in infrared satellite imagery, ASCAT-A/-B passes at 0438Z 
and 0554Z, respectively, indicated that the small cyclone was still 
producing winds of 28-29 kt in the northwestern quadrant. Therefore, 
the intensity is being kept at 30 kt for this advisory.

Carlos is moving a little south of due west or 260/06 kt. As per the 
previous forecast discussion, a gradual westward turn is expected to 
occur later today, followed by a westward to west-northwestward 
motion thereafter as the cyclone weakens and becomes more vertically 
shallow, being steered more by the long-fetch easterly trade wind 
flow. The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of 
the previous advisory track and lies near a blend of the TVCE and 
NOAA-HCCA consensus track models.

The only positive factor that Carlos has going for it is the warm 
water beneath the cyclone where sea-surface temperatures (SST) are 
27.5 deg C. Surrounding the small cyclone, however, is a very dry 
and cool airmass, with stable stratocumulus clouds now wrapping into 
the system, while deep-layer vertical wind shear of more than 20 kt 
has been increasing from the west.  Although SSTs are expected to be 
warm enough to sustain a tropical cyclone for the next few days, the 
unfavorable combination of strong shear and a drier airmass is 
expected to cause Carlos to weaken and degenerate into a remnant low 
by late today, if not sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is similar 
to the previous advisory, and closely follows the HCCA and IVCN 
intensity consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0900Z  9.2N 135.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z  9.2N 135.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z  9.2N 137.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/1800Z  9.4N 138.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/0600Z  9.6N 139.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  18/1800Z  9.8N 141.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart

CARLOS storm path from NHC

Time Speed Location Status
30 knots 9.2, -135.0
25 knots 9.2, -135.9
25 knots 9.2, -137.1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
25 knots 9.4, -138.3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
20 knots 9.6, -139.7 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
20 knots 9.8, -141.1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
0 knots translation missing: en.DISSIPATED


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