( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )
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This is the final warning / advisory for this storm as it has weakened below warning levels and/or the storm system is no longer a tropical cyclone.
Current Wind Speed 40 knots / MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 40 knots / MPH at
Spaghetti models for BATSIRAI can be found here:
BATSIRAI spaghetti models page »
ZCZC 742 WTIO30 FMEE 081246 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 54/2/20212022 1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (EX-BATSIRAI) 2.A POSITION 2022/02/08 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.5 S / 42.1 E (TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH 18 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 595 SE: 610 SW: 555 NW: 370 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 575 SW: 350 NW: 280 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2022/02/09 00 UTC: 31.0 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 620 SE: 610 SW: 435 NW: 305 34 KT NE: 215 SE: 380 SW: 305 NW: 165 24H: 2022/02/09 12 UTC: 33.7 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 595 SE: 610 SW: 455 NW: 345 34 KT NE: 195 SE: 390 SW: 295 NW: 195 36H: 2022/02/10 00 UTC: 35.8 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 630 SE: 445 SW: 285 NW: 345 34 KT NE: 220 SE: 325 SW: 150 NW: 185 48H: 2022/02/10 12 UTC: 37.9 S / 50.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 630 SE: 350 SW: 260 NW: 285 34 KT NE: 220 SE: 285 SW: 150 NW: 155 60H: 2022/02/11 00 UTC: 41.7 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 730 SE: 315 SW: 175 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 280 SE: 285 SW: 120 NW: 85 72H: 2022/02/11 12 UTC: 45.7 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 720 SE: 295 SW: 140 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 280 SE: 230 SW: 85 NW: 0 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2022/02/12 12 UTC: 51.9 S / 90.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 650 SE: 305 SW: 140 NW: 220 34 KT NE: 250 SE: 280 SW: 85 NW: 110 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=/ THE SYSTEM SHEAR PATTERN HAS BEEN MAINTAINED OR EVEN ACCENTUATED DURING THE AFTERNOON, DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR GIVEN FOR 25/30 KT BY THE LAST CIMSS ANALYSIS. THE ANIMATION OF THE LAST MIMIC-TPW IMAGES SHOW THAT DRY AIR IS NOW REACHING THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, AND STARTS TO GRADUALLY SURROUND THE LLC. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS LOGICALLY WIDENED DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, WITH A CENTER THAT REMAINS EXPOSED AND MORE DIFFICULT TO FIND ON THE LAST SATELLITE IMAGES. AS FOR THE CONVECTION, WHICH WAS REPORTED THIS MORNING QUITE FAR IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, IT HAS COMPLETELY COLLAPSED SINCE THEN, NOT ONLY BECAUSE OF THE WINDSHEAR BUT ALSO BECAUSE OF A WEAK OCEANIC POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE LOSS OF SYMMETRY OF THE WINDS OBSERVED ON THE 0558Z ASCAT-C SWATH, IN A CONTEXT OF RAPID RETURN OF THE SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY AND THE PHASES DIAGRAMS ANALYSIS (MOE), THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN CATEGORIZED AS A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION EX-BATSIRAI AT 12Z. EX-BATSIRAI WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE WEAKNESS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD START TO ACCELERATE WITH THE UPWELLING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EX-BATSIRAI SHOULD ACCELERATE ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST FROM TOMORROW AND FINALLY DISAPPEAR IN THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK WITHIN A LARGE SURFACE TROUGH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES. FROM TONIGHT, WITH THE UPWELLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH, THE LACK OF OCEANIC POTENTIAL, AND THE PRESENCE OF SHEAR ALOFT, EX-BATSIRAI WILL NOT BE ABLE TO RECONSTITUTE A CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL NEAR ITS CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS NO LONGER A THREAT TO THE INHABITED LANDS. THIS IS THE LAST WARNING PRODUCED BY RSMC ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION, REFER TO METAREA VII SHIPPING BULLETINS (FQIO25).= NNNN
Public Advisory not available for this storm.
Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.
Time | Speed | Location | Status |
---|---|---|---|
40 knots | -28.5, 42.1 | ||
40 knots | -31.0, 42.0 | ||
40 knots | -33.7, 43.0 | ||
40 knots | -35.8, 45.2 | ||
40 knots | -37.9, 50.8 | ||
35 knots | -41.7, 56.4 | ||
35 knots | -45.7, 65.5 | ||
35 knots | -51.9, 90.2 |
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