Cyclocane
( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )
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This storm is unnamed. If the information appears to be out of date, its name may have changed, so visit the main page for the latest information.
7 Current Status
Current Wind Speed 25 knots / MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 75 knots / MPH at
7 Land Hazards
7 Tracker
7 Satellite Loop
7 Alternate Tracking Map
7 Spaghetti Models
Spaghetti models for 7 can be found here:
7 Watches and Warnings
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7 Tropical Cyclone Update
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7 Public Advisory
ZCZC 853 WTIO30 FMEE 181955 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/7/20232024 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7 2.A POSITION 2024/02/18 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5 S / 53.6 E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST-NORTH-EAST 9 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/S 0.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): NIL 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/19 06 UTC: 14.6 S / 55.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 95 34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 0 24H: 2024/02/19 18 UTC: 14.3 S / 57.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 85 36H: 2024/02/20 06 UTC: 14.6 S / 59.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 205 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 45 48H: 2024/02/20 18 UTC: 15.2 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 30 60H: 2024/02/21 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 165 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 30 72H: 2024/02/21 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 30 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/22 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 57.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SW: 215 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 35 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 0 NW: 30 120H: 2024/02/23 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 56.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 345 SW: 285 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 100 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=1.5+ SINCE 12UTC, CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 07-20232024 HAS AT FIRST WEAKENED SLIGHTLY, THEN REINTENSIFIED IN THE LOW'S NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, FORMING A SHORT CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND. LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS CURVATURE IS BEGINNING TO IMPROVE IN THE LATEST IMAGES. THE EXACT POSITION OF THE CENTER IS RATHER UNCERTAIN AND ESTIMATED TO BE BELOW THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND, NOW LOCATED NORTHWEST OF TROMELIN. MICROWAVE IMAGES SEEM TO SHOW THE BEGINNING OF A CURVED BAND WITH A SMALL CONVECTIVE CORE. DVORAK ANALYSIS AT 1.5+ IS PERHAPS A LITTLE LOW AND WILL PROBABLY BE REVISED TO 2.0 AFTERHAND TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT RECENT STRUCTURE'S IMPROVEMENT AROUND 18UTC. INTENSITY IS STILL ESTIMATED AT 25KT, BUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE. THIS TROPICAL LOW IS SET TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARDS THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, DRIVEN BY NEAR-EQUATORIAL HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SLOW ITS COURSE EASTWARDS, DUE TO A RIDGE BUILDING TO ITS EAST, EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL CAUSE IT TO TURN SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS FROM WEDNESDAY. ITS FINAL TRACK, WHICH SHOULD TAKE IT NEAR THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS (REUNION AND MAURITIUS), WILL BE CLOSELY LINKED TO THE SWELLING OR DEFLATION OF THIS RIDGE BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, AND ALSO TO INTERACTION WITH A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. ON THIS POINT, ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINIST NUMERICAL OUTPUT DIFFER ON THE SCENARIO, RESULTING IN A VERY IMPORTANT DISPERSION BEYOND THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT RSMC TRACK FORECAST THEREFORE REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN, AND WILL BE REFINED OVER THE COMING DAYS. SYSTEM 07-20232024 IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS : STRONG OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL, HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE MID-LEVELS, WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF THE ORDER OF 5-10KT FROM THE SOUTH-WEST, AND GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE MARKED BY AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. MOREOVER, CONVERGENCE FROM THE MONSOON FLOW SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT, WHICH SHOULD REINFORCE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY AND THE CYCLOGENESIS AND INTENSIFICATION PROCESS UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. FROM THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY ONWARDS, MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR COULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, ACCOMPANIED BY A DROP IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL AT THE END OF THE WEEK. IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: TROMELIN ISLAND: - WAVES BETWEEN 3 AND 4 METRES OVERNIGHT, EASING ON TUESDAY. - POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL OF 100 TO 150 MM IN 24 HOURS, CONCENTRATED AROUND THE COMPACT SYSTEM. - GALE-FORCE WINDS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. RAPIDLY IMPROVING WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. SAINT-BRANDON ISLAND: - RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 150 MM OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. - WAVES BETWEEN 3 AND 4 METERS ON TUESDAY, THEN BETWEEN 4 AND 5 METERS ON WEDNESDAY. - POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS FROM TUESDAY, THEN STORM FORCE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.= NNNN
Public Advisory not available for this storm.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7 Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.
7 storm path from meteo france
| Time | Speed | Location | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 knots | -15.5, 53.6 | ||
| 35 knots | -14.6, 55.5 | translation missing: en.MODERATE | |
| 45 knots | -14.3, 57.5 | translation missing: en.MODERATE | |
| 55 knots | -14.6, 59.0 | translation missing: en.SEVERE | |
| 65 knots | -15.2, 59.7 | translation missing: en.TROPICAL | |
| 75 knots | -16.1, 59.7 | translation missing: en.TROPICAL | |
| 75 knots | -17.1, 59.2 | translation missing: en.TROPICAL | |
| 65 knots | -19.4, 57.6 | translation missing: en.TROPICAL | |
| 45 knots | -21.9, 56.1 | translation missing: en.MODERATE |
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