Cyclocane

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6 Current Status

Current Wind Speed 30 knots / MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 60 knots / MPH at 2024-02-18T00:00:00.000Z

6 Land Hazards

6 Tracker

6 Satellite Loop

6 Alternate Tracking Map

6 Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for 6 can be found here:

6 spaghetti models page »

6 Watches and Warnings

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 Tropical Cyclone Update

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 Public Advisory

ZCZC 633
WTIO30 FMEE 151215
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/6/20232024
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6
2.A POSITION 2024/02/15 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3 S / 64.2 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 100
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/02/16 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0
24H: 2024/02/16 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 0 SW: 150 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
36H: 2024/02/17 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SW: 215 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 0
48H: 2024/02/17 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 230 SW: 335 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 150 SW: 95 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SW: 0 NW: 45
60H: 2024/02/18 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 76.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 280 SW: 370 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 175 SW: 75 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55
72H: 2024/02/18 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 240 SW: 405 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/02/19 12 UTC: 27.2 S / 89.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 285 SW: 360 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
120H: 2024/02/20 12 UTC: 31.8 S / 100.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 165 SW: 280 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 155
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5-
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE CURVED BAND CLOUD CONFIGURATION OF SYSTEM
06-20232024 HAS EXPANDED. THE T-NUMBER ESTIMATE BY DVORAK ANALYSIS
HAS THEREFORE INCREASED FROM 2 TO 2.5-, DEFINING MAXIMUM WINDS OF THE
ORDER OF 30KT FOR CLASSIFICATION AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES AVAILABLE ARE GEOSTATIONARY VISIBLE AND INFRARED
IMAGES ONLY. THE LOCATION OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS RATHER
IMPRECISE, ALTHOUGH IT IS IMPORTANT FOR THE CHOICE OF THE FORECAST
TRACK SCENARIO.
IN THE SHORT TERM, THE 06-20232024 SYSTEM WILL MOVE RATHER SLOWLY IN
A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION, DUE TO A LACK OF MID-TROPOSPHERE STEERING
FLOW. AS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS, IT IS CARRIED ALONG BY THE GENERAL
CIRCULATION AT HIGHER LEVELS, AND WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARDS UNDER THE
IMPETUS OF A WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, WHICH IS INCREASINGLY PRESENT. ON SATURDAY,
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH-EASTWARDS, BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE EAST AND
A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT FORECAST, THIS
CONFIGURATION COULD LEAD THE SYSTEM TO LEAVE THE SOUTH-WESTERN INDIAN
OCEAN BASIN TOWARDS THE AUSTRALIAN ZONE OF RESPONSIBILITY DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY. ALL THE GUIDANCE PATTERNS ARE GROUPED INTO TWO
CLASSES. ONE CLASS GROUPS FASTER, MORE NORTHERLY LOCALIZED TRACKS,
THE OTHER CLASS GROUPS SLOWER, MORE SOUTHERLY LOCALIZED TRACK.
COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST IS
SLOWER AND LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH, BRINGING IT CLOSER TO THE SECOND
CLASS. CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS MODERATE, NOTABLY DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY OVER THE SYSTEM'S POSITION IN THE EARLY STAGES.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, LITTLE DIFFERENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE INTENSIFICATION RATE HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY REVISED DOWNWARDS: DUE TO
ITS FORECAST TRACK FURTHER SOUTH, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 06-20232024
WILL ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, NOTABLY IN TERMS
OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
SATISFACTORY FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT: SUFFICIENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL,
LITTLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD SUPPLY OF MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE
LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, AND A FINE ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE MARKED BY
THE PRESENCE OF AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
HOWEVER, DESPITE AN EXCELLENT SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FROM THE MONSOON
FLOW, POLAR CONVERGENCE IS STILL LACKING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
THIS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD IMPROVE FAIRLY RAPIDLY OVER THE
NEXT 18-24 HOURS, HOWEVER, AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FAVOUR STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM TO THE PROBABLE STAGE
OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. A SMALL SOUTHERLY CONSTRAINT IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE SHOULD IMPACT THE METEOR AND INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND, LIMITING THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM. FROM SUNDAY
EVENING, THIS CONSTRAINT SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL DROP IN
OCEANIC POTENTIAL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. ON MONDAY,
ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE SOUTH-WESTERN TROUGH, UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR
BECOMES PREDOMINANT AND EVENTUALLY INJECTS DRY AIR OVER THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER, GRADUALLY CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS.
IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
RODRIGUES ISLAND:
- SEA STATE GRADUALLY WORSENING TODAY, THEN MORE MARKEDLY FROM FRIDAY
EVENING, WITH AVERAGE WAVES BETWEEN 4 AND 5 METERS. IMPROVEMENT ON
SUNDAY, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY.
I=
NNNN

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.

6 storm path from meteo france

Time	Speed	Location	Status
2024-02-15T12:00:00.000Z	30 knots	-15.3, 64.2
2024-02-16T00:00:00.000Z	35 knots	-15.9, 65.8	translation missing: en.MODERATE
2024-02-16T12:00:00.000Z	40 knots	-16.0, 67.6	translation missing: en.MODERATE
2024-02-17T00:00:00.000Z	45 knots	-16.1, 69.4	translation missing: en.MODERATE
2024-02-17T12:00:00.000Z	50 knots	-16.5, 72.2	translation missing: en.SEVERE
2024-02-18T00:00:00.000Z	60 knots	-17.9, 76.2	translation missing: en.SEVERE
2024-02-18T12:00:00.000Z	60 knots	-20.4, 80.5	translation missing: en.SEVERE
2024-02-19T12:00:00.000Z	55 knots	-27.2, 89.3	translation missing: en.SEVERE
2024-02-20T12:00:00.000Z	40 knots	-31.8, 100.3

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