Cyclocane

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0634 UTC 14/03/2022
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 27U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 15.1S
Longitude: 101.3E
Location Accuracy: within 45nm (85 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (237 deg)
Speed of Movement: 13 knots (24 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Central Pressure: 999 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1005 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm (185 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  14/1200: 15.7S 100.3E:     060 (110):  035  (065):  998
+12:  14/1800: 16.0S  99.4E:     065 (125):  040  (075):  994
+18:  15/0000: 16.3S  98.6E:     070 (130):  040  (075):  995
+24:  15/0600: 16.4S  97.7E:     080 (145):  040  (075):  995
+36:  15/1800: 16.5S  95.7E:     085 (160):  045  (085):  992
+48:  16/0600: 16.9S  93.5E:     115 (210):  040  (075):  995
+60:  16/1800: 17.5S  91.5E:     140 (265):  035  (065):  998
+72:  17/0600: 18.1S  89.7E:     185 (340):  030  (055): 1000
+96:  18/0600: 18.1S  86.4E:     290 (535):  025  (045): 1002
+120: 19/0600:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
Tropical low 27U is intensifying.  

The centre has been located using MW and animated VIS imagery.

Dvorak analysis has a DT 2.0 with a wrap of around 0.3 to 0.4. MET 2.0 and PAT
2.0. FT/CI 2.0 based on PAT. ADT guidance has a Final T of 2.3 and Vmax 34
knots and AiDT is 32 knots. Final intensity is set to 35 knots (10-min mean),
though with gales confined to the southern semi-circle. 

Warm SST above 28C. The environment is likely to be favourable until at least
later on Tuesday. Shear should remain low with an upper level anticyclone over
the top. Both equatorward and poleward outflow channels exist, with good upper
divergence. In the mid levels, winds are NE'ly (resulting in the W-SW forecast
motion). The low level centre has been displaced from the mid level centre as a
result of the NE'ly mid level winds, however the system is steadily becoming
more vertically stacked as it's forward motion increases. 

Dry air is present to the southwest of the system and is likely to impact the
system when shear increases later on Tuesday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 14/1330 UTC.

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Tropical Low 27U Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.

27U storm path from BOM - WESTERN

Time	Speed	Location	Status
2022-03-14T06:34:00.000Z	35 knots	-15.1, 101.3

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