Cyclocane

( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )

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2 Current Status

Current Wind Speed 25 knots / MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 90 knots / MPH at 2024-01-15T06:00:00.000Z

2 Land Hazards

2 Tracker

2 Satellite Loop

2 Alternate Tracking Map

2 Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for 2 can be found here:

2 spaghetti models page »

2 Watches and Warnings

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 Tropical Cyclone Update

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 Public Advisory

ZCZC 807
WTIO30 FMEE 120647
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/2/20232024
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2
2.A POSITION 2024/01/12 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0 S / 57.6 E
(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/12 18 UTC: 14.3 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0
24H: 2024/01/13 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 55.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 75
36H: 2024/01/13 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
48H: 2024/01/14 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 54.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
60H: 2024/01/14 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 54.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 35
72H: 2024/01/15 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 205 SW: 230 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/01/16 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 285 SW: 270 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45
120H: 2024/01/17 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 500 SW: 390 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 335 SW: 280 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 50 SW: 60 NW: 60
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0+
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE 02 HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED, IN CONJUNCTION
WITH GOOD SUPPLY IN THE EQUATORIAL PART. CONVECTION IS MAINLY
ORGANIZED IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE SYSTEM, IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
EASTERLY SHEAR STRESS. A DVORAK ANALYSIS AT 2.0+ CAN BE GIVEN IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE 25KT VALUES OF THE LAST ASCAT PASS OF 05H53 UTC.
THE SYSTEM'S TRACK IS DRIVEN BY A RIDGE OF LOW LEVEL LAYERS TO THE
EAST. THIS WILL IMPOSE A SOUTH-WESTERLY TRACK TOWARDS THE
MASCAREIGNES DURING THE FIRST STAGES UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER, AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES, IT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A
HIGH-ALTITUDE STEERING FLOW, ON THE SOUTH-WESTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE, WHICH WILL IMPOSE A SOUTH-EASTERLY TRACK ON IT.
ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE NORTH
OF THE MASCAREIGNES BETWEEN SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY MORNING,
CONTINUING TO MOVE CLOSER TOGETHER. THIS TIMING WILL DEPEND CLOSELY
ON THE WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM, WHICH COULD DELAY THE TURN AND SLOW THE MOVEMENT. THE
RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE
MODELS, WHOSE DISPERSION REMAINS SIGNIFICANT AT THESE TIMES, LEADING
TO UNCERTAINTY OVER THE DISTANCES OVER THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS ON
MONDAY AND BEYOND.
THE MINIMUM WILL BENEFIT FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WITH A
GOOD SUPPLY OF MOIST AIR, LOW VERTICAL SHEAR, VERY WARM WATERS WITH
HIGH ENERGY POTENTIAL AND GOOD ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE. THE SYSTEM ALSO
BENEFITS FROM GOOD EQUATORIAL LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, THANKS TO A
DYNAMIC MONSOON FLOW. WE CAN THEREFORE EXPECT A SUSTAINED TO RAPID
INTENSIFICATION THAT WILL ENABLE IT TO REACH THE MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM STAGE IN THE EVENING. APPROACHING THE GREAT MASCAREIGNES
(REUNION - MAURITIUS), THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY,
PROBABLY REACHING THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS (UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING):
- WAVES OF AROUND 4 METERS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES ON
SUNDAY, RISING TO 6 METERS BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE HIGHEST WAVES MAY
REACH TWICE THESE HEIGHTS.
- HEAVY RAINS CONCENTRATED AROUND THE SYSTEM. AGALEGA WILL LEAVE THE
ZONE OF INFLUENCE BY THIS EVENING.
- GRADUAL DETERIORATION OF WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE MASCARENE
ISLANDS, WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND GALE-FORCE
WINDS ON SUNDAY EVENING. THE RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM COULD
BEGIN TO AFFECT MAURITIUS AND REUNION BY LATE SATURDAY.=
NNNN

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.

2 storm path from meteo france

Time	Speed	Location	Status
2024-01-12T06:00:00.000Z	25 knots	-13.0, 57.6
2024-01-12T18:00:00.000Z	35 knots	-14.3, 56.5	translation missing: en.MODERATE
2024-01-13T06:00:00.000Z	45 knots	-15.6, 55.5	translation missing: en.MODERATE
2024-01-13T18:00:00.000Z	60 knots	-17.1, 54.7	translation missing: en.SEVERE
2024-01-14T06:00:00.000Z	70 knots	-18.3, 54.6	translation missing: en.TROPICAL
2024-01-14T18:00:00.000Z	80 knots	-19.3, 54.9	translation missing: en.TROPICAL
2024-01-15T06:00:00.000Z	90 knots	-20.1, 55.4	translation missing: en.INTENSE
2024-01-16T06:00:00.000Z	90 knots	-21.5, 57.0	translation missing: en.INTENSE
2024-01-17T06:00:00.000Z	80 knots	-23.2, 59.9	translation missing: en.TROPICAL

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