Cyclocane

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0138 UTC 26/02/2021
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 14.2S
Longitude: 100.5E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [255 deg]
Speed of Movement: 18 knots [33 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 64-knot winds: 
Radius of Maximum Winds:    
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  26/0600: 14.4S  98.7E:     035 [065]:  040  [075]:  993
+12:  26/1200: 14.6S  97.2E:     040 [075]:  040  [075]:  992
+18:  26/1800: 14.7S  96.0E:     050 [090]:  045  [085]:  989
+24:  27/0000: 14.9S  94.9E:     050 [095]:  050  [095]:  986
+36:  27/1200: 15.7S  93.4E:     065 [125]:  055  [100]:  981
+48:  28/0000: 16.3S  92.2E:     085 [160]:  060  [110]:  977
+60:  28/1200: 16.9S  91.4E:     095 [175]:  065  [120]:  973
+72:  01/0000: 17.4S  90.6E:     110 [205]:  070  [130]:  969
+96:  02/0000: 18.1S  90.0E:     145 [265]:  065  [120]:  970
+120: 03/0000: 18.9S  91.7E:     195 [360]:  055  [100]:  979
REMARKS:
Tropical low 15U continues to develop and is near TC intensity. Deep convection
has developed near the centre overnight with improved convective banding since
22UTC. 

Dvorak analysis of 3.0 based upon curved band pattern [0.7 wrap] supported by
MET of 3.0 [D1.0 over 24h]. This is higher than objective NOAA ADT values of
2.4. 

The Dvorak rating would normally equate to tropical cyclone intensity and while
the maximum winds are 35 kn, gales are currently estimated only in southern
quadrants and so not extending more than halfway around. This estimation is
based on the 18kn translation speed to the WSW, however if the satellite
signature continues, TC intensity is likely imminent and upcoming scatterometry
should assist in that assessment.

The analysed high shear is being offset by the split flow in the upper levels
from the recent convective burst northeast of the centre so it is expected that
the vortex tilt will reduce permitting further intensification. However the
chance for rapid intensification in the next 24-36h is reduced as the system is
larger than normal owing to the synoptic forcing especially south of the system.
Peak intensity is forecast at 70kn within 72h and maybe sustained for a period
in a marginally favourable environment. Indeed model guidance maintains the
system at TC intensity through the next 5-7 days. 
 
The mid-level ridge to the south continues to dominate the steering with a WSW
motion forecast although on Saturday the motion will slow as the system deepens
and the ridge weakens in response to a developing mid-latitude trough to the
southeast off southern Western Australia. By Tuesday the slow moving system
should track to the southeast and accelerate somewhat owing to an approaching
mid-latitude trough. At this range there is a considerable spread in model
guidance. 



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 26/0730 UTC.

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Tropical Low 15U Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.

15U storm path from BOM - WESTERN

Time	Speed	Location
2021-02-26T01:38:00.000Z	35 knots	-14.2, 100.5
2021-02-26T06:00:00.000Z	40 knots	-14.4, 98.7
2021-02-26T12:00:00.000Z	40 knots	-14.6, 97.2
2021-02-26T18:00:00.000Z	45 knots	-14.7, 96.0
2021-02-27T00:00:00.000Z	50 knots	-14.9, 94.9
2021-02-27T12:00:00.000Z	55 knots	-15.7, 93.4
2021-02-28T00:00:00.000Z	60 knots	-16.3, 92.2
2021-02-28T12:00:00.000Z	65 knots	-16.9, 91.4
2021-03-01T00:00:00.000Z	70 knots	-17.4, 90.6
2021-03-02T00:00:00.000Z	65 knots	-18.1, 90.0
2021-03-03T00:00:00.000Z	55 knots	-18.9, 91.7

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