Cyclocane
( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )
English Español Deutsch Français 日本語
This storm is unnamed. If the information appears to be out of date, its name may have changed, so visit the main page for the latest information.
14U Current Status
Current Wind Speed 35 knots / MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 35 knots / MPH at
14U Land Hazards
14U Tracker
14U Satellite Loop
14U Alternate Tracking Map
14U Spaghetti Models
Spaghetti models for 14U can be found here:
14U Watches and Warnings
Tropical Low 14U Tropical Cyclone Update
Tropical Low 14U Public Advisory
IDQ20018 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0128 UTC 08/02/2023 Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 14U Data At: 0000 UTC Latitude: 15.5S Longitude: 153.5E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: south (188 deg) Speed of Movement: 7 knots (13 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h) Central Pressure: 994 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 150 nm (280 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS SST:S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 300 nm (555 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 08/0600: 16.0S 153.2E: 040 (070): 045 (085): 989 +12: 08/1200: 16.4S 153.1E: 050 (095): 050 (095): 986 +18: 08/1800: 17.0S 152.9E: 060 (110): 055 (100): 982 +24: 09/0000: 17.7S 153.2E: 070 (130): 065 (120): 976 +36: 09/1200: 19.7S 154.8E: 080 (150): 075 (140): 965 +48: 10/0000: 22.3S 157.7E: 100 (185): 080 (150): 961 +60: 10/1200: 24.7S 161.1E: 135 (245): 080 (150): 958 +72: 11/0000: 27.0S 164.5E: 145 (265): 070 (130): 965 +96: 12/0000: 29.5S 170.1E: 145 (270): 055 (100): 974 +120: 13/0000: 32.6S 174.5E: 190 (350): 045 (085): 982 REMARKS: Convective banding improving near the tropical low system centre. Tropical low 14U position was based on animated Himiwari-9 satellite IR imagery. Dvorak analysis was based on a curved band pattern with a 0.4 to 0.5 wrap giving a DT=2.5. MET is 2.5 based on a 24 hour D trend with no PAT adjustment. Intensity is analysed at 35 knots with gales in the eastern semicircle. Earlier SMAP radiometer data at 1935 UTC showed gales near 14U, particularly under the deep convection. The forecast track is based on a weak mid-level ridge to the east of the system and is forecast to steer the system to the south through Wednesday, before the upper trough becomes the dominant steering influence and takes the system southeast from Thursday. An ensemble of numerical weather prediction models give good confidence in the forecast track, with the system expected to remain well to the east of the Queensland coast. The long term track takes the system close to Norfolk Island over the weekend. This track produces a dynamic fetch of gale force northerly winds expected to produce large northerly swells for southern Queensland. The environment is favourable for further development today and Thursday. CIMSS upper level winds currently analyse the system under 15 to 20 knots of deep layer shear, however upper divergence over the system is high and it is expected to track into an area of lower shear going forward. In the medium term the moisture availability will remain high, as will along track SSTs of 29 to 30 degrees Celsius. Upper outflow to the south will be enhanced as the upper trough approaches to the south of 14U and low-level trade flow improves. 14U is forecast to intensify to Category 1 later today, however gale force winds are already occurring near the system. 14U is forecast to continue to intensify into a severe tropical cyclone on Thursday, and may undergo a period of rapid intensification in very favourable conditions. The upper trough will provide increasing vertical wind shear from Friday, with 14U expected to gradually transition into a vigorous sub-tropical cyclone over the weekend as it moves near Norfolk Island. The system may weaken a little as this occurs, but is likely to remain at category 2 intensity with storm force winds and a very large area of gale force winds even as it loses its tropical characteristics. 14U is likely to remain a strong low pressure system into next week well outside of the Australian region. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 08/0730 UTC.
Public Advisory not available for this storm.
Tropical Low 14U Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.
14U storm path from BOM - EASTERN
| Time | Speed | Location | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 knots | -15.5, 153.5 |
site by Hayley Croft
Want to help support this site?
- Tell your friends about Cyclocane
- make a donation - totally optional but completely appreciated
Make a monthly donation or a one-time donation to help support ongoing costs with Cyclocane.
Play solitaire and track all of the cyclocane storms at the same time at Hurricane Solitaire.