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11U Current Status

Current Wind Speed 30 knots / MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 30 knots / MPH at 2023-02-09T00:51:00.000Z

11U Land Hazards

11U Tracker

11U Satellite Loop

11U Alternate Tracking Map

11U Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for 11U can be found here:

11U spaghetti models page »

11U Watches and Warnings

Tropical Low 11U Tropical Cyclone Update

Tropical Low 11U Public Advisory

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0051 UTC 09/02/2023
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 11U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 16.3S
Longitude: 90.2E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: west (262 deg)
Speed of Movement: 15 knots (27 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/2.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm (185 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  09/0600: 16.4S  89.2E:     035 (070):  035  (065):  997
+12:  09/1200: 16.3S  88.2E:     045 (085):  035  (065):  997
+18:  09/1800: 16.0S  87.0E:     050 (095):  035  (065):  997
+24:  10/0000: 16.0S  85.9E:     055 (105):  035  (065):  997
+36:  10/1200: 15.7S  83.7E:     065 (120):  035  (065):  997
+48:  11/0000: 15.4S  81.5E:     080 (150):  045  (085):  991
+60:  11/1200: 15.5S  79.5E:     100 (185):  050  (095):  988
+72:  12/0000: 16.3S  77.4E:     110 (205):  055  (100):  985
+96:  13/0000: 18.4S  74.3E:     140 (265):  055  (100):  982
+120: 14/0000: 19.1S  71.8E:     205 (375):  045  (085):  989
REMARKS:
Tropical Low 11U position fix was fair using visible satellite imagery and a
2230Z microwave pass.  

Deep convection moved to just be on the southern side. The shear vector is east
northeast. Dvorak analysis was a curved band with a 0.2 wrap. MET/PAT was a
steady trend and no pattern adjustment, leading to a FT of 1.5. CI held at 2.0.
Recent AMSR pass at 1934Z indicated (possibly) 30 knots on the southern side.
Intensity set to 30 knots. 

Moderate to high vertical wind shear (east northeast 20-25 knots) persists over
the system centre. The 200hPa ridge axis is located just south of the centre
and outflow divergence has improved as northwesterly upper level flow
strengthens ahead of a trough to the far southwest. Although dry mid-level air
has wrapped around northern sectors, high PW persists in a pouch around the
centre maintaining system intensity.  

The environment is broadly favourable apart from the wind shear. Gales are
expected to develop on the southern side in the next 6 hours. Tropical cyclone
development is forecast within 36-48 hours, which is when shear is forecast to
decrease a little. Continuing general westward movement is forecast under the
influence of a mid-level ridge to the south. 

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system. Responsibility for this system is now with La Reunion RSMC.

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Tropical Low 11U Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.

11U storm path from BOM - WESTERN

Time	Speed	Location	Status
2023-02-09T00:51:00.000Z	30 knots	-16.3, 90.2

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