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06U Current Status

Current Wind Speed 30 knots / MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 30 knots / MPH at 2022-12-22T07:24:00.000Z

06U Land Hazards

06U Tracker

06U Satellite Loop

06U Alternate Tracking Map

06U Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for 06U can be found here:

06U spaghetti models page »

06U Watches and Warnings

Tropical Low 06U Tropical Cyclone Update

Tropical Low 06U Public Advisory

IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0724 UTC 22/12/2022
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 06U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 12.6S
Longitude: 129.0E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: south (189 deg)
Speed of Movement: 6 knots (11 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm (165 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  22/1200: 13.2S 128.9E:     050 (090):  030  (055):  997
+12:  22/1800: 13.7S 129.1E:     060 (110):  030  (055):  997
+18:  23/0000: 14.2S 129.2E:     065 (120):  035  (065):  994
+24:  23/0600: 14.8S 129.3E:     070 (130):  035  (065):  994
+36:  23/1800: 15.8S 129.6E:     080 (145):  030  (055):  997
+48:  24/0600: 16.9S 129.4E:     100 (180):  030  (055):  997
+60:  24/1800: 17.9S 129.1E:     110 (205):  025  (045):  999
+72:  25/0600: 19.0S 128.4E:     130 (245):  025  (045): 1001
+96:  26/0600: 21.7S 127.2E:     185 (345):  025  (045): 1000
+120: 27/0600: 23.5S 127.6E:     245 (455):  025  (045):  998
REMARKS:
A tropical low (06U) has developed in the Timor Sea, and is moving towards the
south. It has improved in structure in the past 24 hours, and may develop into
a tropical cyclone on Friday morning if it stays over water. There is some
uncertainty in position as the Darwin radar appears to be depicting a mid-level
circulation, which may ultimately be reflected at the surface if 06U continues
to develop. 

Dvorak assessment has been difficult, with cloud features not clear cut. At
times a small curved band has appeared with a wrap of up to 0.4, but ultimately
no DT has been assigned at this time. MET and PAT are 2.5 based on a D+ trend,
with FT/CI set to 2.5. No objective guidance is currently available. 

06U is expected to continue moving southwards tonight and on Friday. Depending
on proximity to coast, the system may spend enough time over water to develop
into a tropical cyclone. The environment is favourable, with low shear, SSTs
above 30C, and good upper support with outflow channels to the north and south.
As 06U is likely to be a small system, rapid development is possible and there
is a slight chance it could reach category 2 intensity prior to crossing. 

06U should move inland over northern Australia by Friday evening at the latest,
and would be expected to weaken quickly below tropical cyclone intensity.
However, the system may retain a coherent circulation a long way inland, which
could bring heavy rainfall and squally conditions to inland parts of WA or the
NT. 

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 22/1330 UTC.

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Tropical Low 06U Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.

06U storm path from BOM - NORTHERN

Time	Speed	Location	Status
2022-12-22T07:24:00.000Z	30 knots	-12.6, 129.0

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