Cyclocane

WTPS31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 031//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 031    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200000Z --- NEAR 23.3S 178.1W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.3S 178.1W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 24.1S 178.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 23.5S 178.2W.
20DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 369 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS SITUATED 
WITHIN AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT IN RECENT VISIBLE 
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY A
191930Z SCATSAT PASS AND RECENT AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM 
CIMSS AND CIRA. TC 05P IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE 
STEERING INFLUENCE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE 
SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY TRANSITIONED INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT 
PASSES OVER COOLER WATER AND INTERACTS WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. 
FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER-
TROUGHING HAVE ENABLED TC 05P TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS DESPITE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (OVER 30 KNOTS) AND 
PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER (25-26C). FULL TRANSITION INTO A 
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS IMMINENT. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW 
THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING FLOW SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, 
AND WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN INTENSITY OR WEAKEN ONLY SLIGHTLY WITH 
PERSISTENCE OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS DISCUSSED ABOVE. NUMERICAL 
MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 12, LENDING HIGH 
CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS 
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL 
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT 
WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 20 FEET.//
NNNN

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

TROPICAL CYCLONE YASA Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.

YASA storm path from JTWC

Time	Speed	Location	Status
2020-12-20T00:00:00.000Z	50 knots	-23.3, -178.1
2020-12-20T12:00:00.000Z	45 knots	-24.1, -178.7

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