Cyclocane

WTPS31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 012    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111800Z --- NEAR 21.6S 162.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S 162.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 23.2S 162.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 25.2S 161.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 27.6S 160.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 30.2S 158.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 34.8S 157.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 162.6E.
11FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (UESI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 192 
NM WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWS THE SYSTEM MAINTAINED A DEEP CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST THAT 
OBSCURED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. POLEWARD ELONGATION DUE TO SHEAR 
IS BECOMING APPARENT; HOWEVER, INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS ALSO 
ENHANCED THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH 
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 111806Z GPM 
37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT 
OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE TC WILL NOW TRACK MORE 
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE 
EAST BUILDS. AROUND TAU 48, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM 
THE SOUTHWEST WILL DIG INTO AND WEAKEN THE STR RESULTING IN A MORE 
SOUTHWARD TRACK. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE (20KTS+). 
THIS, PLUS THE APPROACH OF COOL DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. 
CONCURRENTLY, NEAR TAU 48, TC UESI WILL UNDERGO SUBTROPICAL 
TRANSITION AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD 500MB LOW EAST OF 
AUSTRALIA AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING BAROCLINICITY AND COOLING SST 
VALUES (24-26C). THE SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY 
TAU 72, CHARACTERIZED BY AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. NUMERIC MODELS ARE 
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST 
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.//
NNNN

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

TROPICAL CYCLONE UESI Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.

UESI storm path from JTWC

Time	Speed	Location
2020-02-11T18:00:00.000Z	75 knots	-21.6, 162.7
2020-02-12T06:00:00.000Z	70 knots	-23.2, 162.3
2020-02-12T18:00:00.000Z	65 knots	-25.2, 161.4
2020-02-13T06:00:00.000Z	60 knots	-27.6, 160.1
2020-02-13T18:00:00.000Z	55 knots	-30.2, 158.6
2020-02-14T18:00:00.000Z	45 knots	-34.8, 157.8

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