Cyclocane
( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )
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This storm is unnamed. If the information appears to be out of date, its name may have changed, so visit the main page for the latest information.
TWO-E Current Status
...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ONSHORE THE COASTS OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO...
Current Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 65 knots / 75 MPH at
TWO-E Land Hazards
- WIND - Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area Friday and Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning later today and continuing through Friday evening.
- RAINFALL - Through Saturday, storm total rainfall of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum amounts of 7 inches, is expected across southern Mexico from Oaxaca west to Jalisco. This rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding.
- SURF - Swells generated by the depression are forecast to build and spread northward along the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
TWO-E Tracker
TWO-E Satellite Loop
TWO-E Alternate Tracking Map
TWO-E Spaghetti Models
Spaghetti models for TWO-E can be found here:
TWO-E Watches and Warnings
Tropical Depression TWO-E Tropical Cyclone Update
Tropical Depression TWO-E Public Advisory
000 WTPZ32 KNHC 291747 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Two-E Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022023 100 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 ...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ONSHORE THE COASTS OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 99.2W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SSW OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Manzanillo Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests along the west-central coast of Mexico and in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. Additional warnings and watches may be required later today or on Friday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two-E was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 99.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected through early Saturday, followed by a decrease in forward speed later on Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move parallel to and very close to the southwestern coast of Mexico through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The system could become a hurricane by Friday evening. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Two-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/miatcdep2.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area Friday and Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning later today and continuing through Friday evening. RAINFALL: Through Saturday, storm total rainfall of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum amounts of 7 inches, is expected across southern Mexico from Oaxaca west to Jalisco. This rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are forecast to build and spread northward along the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Public Advisory not available for this storm.
Tropical Depression TWO-E Forecast Discussion
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 291445 TCDEP2 Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022023 1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 The depression is producing a large area of deep convection off the southern coast of Mexico, however microwave imagery indicates that the banding features are still in the process of taking shape. Dvorak intensity estimates are T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and T1.5/25 kt from SAB, therefore the initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory. There is still a lot of uncertainty in the location of the depression's center, and the estimated motion (west-northwestward, or 300/11 kt) is primarily based on extrapolation from the previous advisory. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion at a fairly constant speed is expected during the next 2 days or so while the system moves between a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and Hurricane Adrian to its west. During this period, all of the track guidance moves the system parallel to and within 100 n mi of the southwestern coast of Mexico, with the typically reliable ECMWF and HCCA aids, as well as the new HAFS models, leaning on the right side of the envelope. The NHC track forecast is closest to those solutions and is very similar to the previous forecast, although it has been sped up a bit to account for recent model trends. After 48 hours, the cyclone is expected to gradually bend toward the left and slow down as Adrian weakens and a stronger ridge develops over the southwestern United States. However, it is not yet clear how sharp that bend will be, and the system could approach the southern part of the Baja California peninsula in 3 to 4 days. The depression appears poised to strengthen in a low-shear and moist environment and over very warm sea surface temperatures of 30-31 degrees Celsius. In fact, the intensity guidance has become much more aggressive on this forecast cycle, including an increase in the chance for rapid intensification. Most of the guidance shows the cyclone reaching a peak in intensity in 36-48 hours when it's very close to the southwestern coast of Mexico, and the new NHC intensity forecast has been increased rather significantly to hurricane strength during that period compared to the previous forecast. Even this forecast could be conservative, as several of the regional hurricane models, as well as the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids, are 5-25 kt higher than the official forecast at 36 hours. A combination of shear, a drier atmosphere, and cooler waters are expected to lead to weakening after 48 hours, and the system could be a remnant low by day 5. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to strengthen quickly and could become a hurricane by Friday evening, bringing a risk of strong winds to portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the coasts of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, and hurricane conditions are possible in those areas late Friday through Saturday. 2. Locally heavy rainfall of 3 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of 7 inches, is expected across southern Mexico from the state of Oaxaca westward to the state of Jalisco. These rains could lead to localized flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 14.6N 98.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 15.4N 100.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 16.5N 101.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 17.9N 103.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 19.3N 105.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 02/0000Z 20.5N 106.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 21.4N 107.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 22.1N 109.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 22.5N 112.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
TWO-E storm path from NHC
| Time | Speed | Location | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 knots | 14.8, -99.2 | ||
| 40 knots | 15.4, -100.2 | ||
| 55 knots | 16.5, -101.9 | ||
| 65 knots | 17.9, -103.8 | ||
| 65 knots | 19.3, -105.6 | ||
| 60 knots | 20.5, -106.8 | ||
| 55 knots | 21.4, -107.9 | ||
| 40 knots | 22.1, -109.9 | ||
| 25 knots | 22.5, -112.1 | POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE |
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