Cyclocane

( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )

This storm is unnamed. If the information appears to be out of date, its name may have changed, so visit the main page for the latest information.

TWENTY-NINE Current Status

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT APPROACHES NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...

Current Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 75 knots / 85 MPH at 2020-11-03T06:00:00.000Z

Current Watches/Warnings / Radar / Satellite

current US watches/warnings

live tornado/thunderstorm tracker - tornadohq

future radar imagery - my future radar

current radar loop

future radar imagery

(above image is an example of the Western North Atlantic page - see Atlantic future radar page for a full set of images)

If a tropical storm or hurricane is threatening land, you can check my future radar for an idea of what radar might look like as the storm approaches.

TWENTY-NINE Land Hazards

NWS Local Hurricane Statements

No warnings

RAINFALL - Through Thursday afternoon, the depression is expected to cause 5 to 10 inches of rain, with local 15-inch amounts, across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and possibly the southern coast of Hispaniola. Across portions of Central America, 10 to 15 inches of rain, with local amounts to 25 inches are expected. This rainfall should lead to flash flooding and river flooding, and could cause landslides in areas of higher terrain.

TWENTY-NINE Tracker

TWENTY-NINE Satellite Loop

TWENTY-NINE Alternate Tracking Map

TWENTY-NINE Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for TWENTY-NINE can be found here:

TWENTY-NINE spaghetti models page »

TWENTY-NINE Watches and Warnings

Tropical Depression TWENTY-NINE Tropical Cyclone Update

Tropical Depression TWENTY-NINE Public Advisory

000
WTNT34 KNHC 312049
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-Nine Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL292020
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
APPROACHES NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 73.2W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 665 MI...1075 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of 
the depression.  Hurricane or tropical storm watches will likely be 
required for portions of these countries later tonight or early 
Sunday.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-Nine was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 73.2
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 
km/h), and this westward motion is expected to continue through 
Sunday night.  A slower motion toward the west-southwest and then 
southwest is forecast on Monday and Tuesday.  On the forecast track, 
the center of the cyclone is expected to be near the northeastern 
coast of Nicaragua by Monday night.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become 
a tropical storm tonight.  The system is then expected to become a 
hurricane by Monday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Through Thursday afternoon, the depression is expected to
cause 5 to 10 inches of rain, with local 15-inch amounts, across
Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and possibly the southern coast of
Hispaniola.  Across portions of Central America, 10 to 15 inches of
rain, with local amounts to 25 inches are expected.  This rainfall
should lead to flash flooding and river flooding, and could cause
landslides in areas of higher terrain.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Tropical Depression TWENTY-NINE Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT44 KNHC 312050
TCDAT4
 
Tropical Depression Twenty-Nine Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL292020
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020
 
Showers and thunderstorms have continued to become better organized 
in association with a tropical wave which has been moving westward 
across the central Caribbean Sea.  It was unclear this morning if 
the system had developed a closed low-level circulation, since 
scatterometers have avoided the system over the past 24 hours, but 
recent visible and microwave satellite images suggest that the 
system almost certainly now has a well-defined center.  For that 
reason, the system is being designated as a tropical depression with 
30-kt winds, based on Dvorak classifications of T2.0 from both TAFB 
and SAB.
 
A low- to mid-level ridge axis that extends from the subtropical 
Atlantic southwestward to Cuba and the Bahamas is currently steering 
the depression toward the west (270 degrees) at an estimated speed 
of 13 kt.  Model guidance is in fairly good agreement on the 
depression's future track for the first 48 hours or so.  The cyclone 
is expected to continue westward for the first 36 hours and then 
slow down and turn west-southwestward by 48 hours as it approaches 
the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, in response to a building 
ridge over the Gulf of Mexico.  After that time, however, there is 
significant divergence in the models.  For example, the ECWMF and 
its ensemble members continue on a faster westward motion across 
Central America, while the GFS and its ensemble members stall the 
system over the western Caribbean Sea through day 5.  Given this 
discrepancy, the NHC official track forecast shows a slow motion on 
days 3 through 5, and brings the cyclone's center slowly across 
northern Nicaragua, more or less in line with the multi-model 
consensus aids.  This forecast is of generally low confidence, 
however, and significant changes could be required in later advisory 
packages depending on model trends.
 
The waters over the Caribbean Sea remain very warm--around 29 
degrees Celsius--and the environment is characterized by low 
vertical shear of 10 kt or less.  Along with plenty of ambient 
moisture, these parameters suggest the system is primed for steady, 
if not significant, strengthening during the next few days.  The NHC 
official forecast generally lies between the SHIPS guidance and the 
HCCA corrected-consensus aid, which lie near the upper bound of the 
intensity guidance, and it brings the system to hurricane strength 
in 48 hours.  The intensity forecast hinges greatly on whether or 
not the cyclone's center moves inland over Central America, but 
regardless, the system is expected to be a hurricane when it 
approaches the Honduras and Nicaragua coasts in a few days.

Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to strengthen to a hurricane early 
next week as it approaches the coast of Central America late Monday 
and Monday night, and there is a risk of storm surge, 
hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall for portions of Nicaragua 
and Honduras.  Hurricane Watches could be needed for portions of 
those areas later tonight. 

2. Through Thursday afternoon, heavy rainfall from the system will 
likely lead to flash flooding and river flooding across portions of 
Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Central America, which could result 
in landslides in areas of higher terrain.  Flooding is also possible 
near the southern coast of Hispaniola.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/2100Z 15.0N  73.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 15.1N  75.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 15.4N  78.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 15.5N  80.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 15.1N  82.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  03/0600Z 14.3N  83.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  03/1800Z 13.8N  83.7W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 96H  04/1800Z 13.5N  85.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
120H  05/1800Z 14.0N  86.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

TWENTY-NINE storm path from NHC

Time	Speed	Location	Status
2020-10-31T21:00:00.000Z	30 knots	15.0, -73.2
2020-11-01T06:00:00.000Z	35 knots	15.1, -75.6
2020-11-01T18:00:00.000Z	45 knots	15.4, -78.3
2020-11-02T06:00:00.000Z	55 knots	15.5, -80.4
2020-11-02T18:00:00.000Z	65 knots	15.1, -82.1
2020-11-03T06:00:00.000Z	75 knots	14.3, -83.1
2020-11-03T18:00:00.000Z	70 knots	13.8, -83.7	translation missing: en.INLAND
2020-11-04T18:00:00.000Z	40 knots	13.5, -85.5	translation missing: en.INLAND
2020-11-05T18:00:00.000Z	25 knots	14.0, -86.9	translation missing: en.INLAND

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