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Tropical Storm Risk - Tropical Weather Outlook

With the exception of the Central Pacific Basin, all tropical storm outlook areas are automatically displayed on the main Cyclocane map as well as on this page.

Detailed Tropical Weather Outlooks by Ocean Basin

South Pacific valid 2025-09-30T06:00:00.000Z
low Northwest Pacific valid 2025-09-30T06:00:00.000Z
South Indian valid 2025-09-29T18:00:00.000Z
low North Indian valid 2025-09-29T18:00:00.000Z
Central Pacific valid 2025-09-29T12:00:00.000Z
Atlantic valid 2025-09-29T12:00:00.000Z
high low low Eastern Pacific valid 2025-09-29T12:00:00.000Z
Fiji valid 2025-05-17T23:05:00.000Z
high Australia - Western Region valid 2022-05-07T19:08:00Z
Australia - Northern Region valid 2022-04-30T04:45:00Z
Australia - Eastern Region valid 2022-04-30T04:30:00Z

Tropical Storm Potential for the next 48 hours

Below is the Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability for the next 48 hours per the RAMMB.

tropical cyclone potential the next 48 hours

Indian Ocean Tropical Storm Risk

Indian Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the JTWC

North Indian Ocean

1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.2N 
70.7E, APPROXIMATELY 155 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXTREMELY BROAD AREA OF 
TURNING CHARACTERIZED BY FLARING CONVECTION AND NO DEFINED LLCC WITH 
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH BEING SHEARED OFF. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME WITH MODERATE TO 
HIGH (20KT-30KT) VWS AND RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY 
WARM SST (27C-29C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE 
CONFIDENT IN A STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF THE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE 
NEXT 48-72 HOURS AS THE INVEST TRANSITIONS OVER OPEN OCEAN. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

South Indian Ocean

2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

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Northwest Pacific and South Pacific Tropical Storm Risk

West Pacific and South Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the JTWC

Northwest Pacific Ocean

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 29SEP25 0000Z, TYPHOON 25W (NEOGURI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.4N 
172.4E, APPROXIMATELY 1417 NM NORTH OF WAKE ISLAND, AND HAD TRACKED 
NORTHEASTWARD AT 28 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS GUSTING TO 110 KNOTS. SEE REF A 
(WTPN33 PGTW 290300) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) AT 28SEP25 1800Z, TYPHOON 26W (BUALOI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 
106.2E, APPROXIMATELY 169 NM SOUTH OF HANOI, VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS GUSTING TO 100 KNOTS. 
SEE REF B (WTPN31 PGTW 282100) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.0N 
140.0E, APPROXIMATELY 241 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK AREA OF TURNING WITH 
DISLODGED CELLS OF FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THIS 
POORLY DEFINED AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY FAVORABLE 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5KT-10KT) VWS, WARM (28C-30C) SSTS AND GOOD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE CONFIDENT 
THIS BROAD AREA OF DISPLACED CONVECTION WILL CONSOLIDATE AND CONTINUE TO 
TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

South Pacific Ocean

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

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Australia - Western Region Tropical Storm Risk

IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 3:08 am WST on Sunday 8 May 2022
for the period until midnight WST Tuesday 10 May 2022.

Existing Cyclones in the  Western Region:

Nil

Potential Cyclones:  

Tropical Cyclone Karim (36U) was located near 9.5S 90.1E at 2am WST Sunday,
just to the north of the Western Region. It is forcast to move into the region
during Sunday morning.

TC Karim will to continue moving towards the south to southeast over the coming
days. It is expected to maintain tropical cyclone intensity until it weakens in
the middle of the week, over open waters well to the west of the WA mainland.

TC Karim is expected to remain far enough west of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands
for there to be no direct impacts from this system, however shower and
thunderstorm activity should continue into early next week.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Monday          High       
Tuesday         High       


No other significant lows are expected in the region for at least the next 7
days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Monday          Very Low   
Tuesday         Very Low   

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of 10S.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

Australia - Northern Region Tropical Storm Risk

IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Saturday 30 April 2022
for the period until midnight CST Tuesday 3 May 2022.

Existing Cyclones in the  Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

There are no significant lows in the region and none are expected to develop
within the next 7 days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Sunday          Very Low   
Monday          Very Low   
Tuesday         Very Low   


This will be the final Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region until 1
November 2022.

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between
125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around
Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

Australia - Eastern Region Tropical Storm Risk

IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Saturday 30 April 2022
for the period until midnight EST Tuesday 3 May 2022.

Existing Cyclones in the  Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

There are no significant tropical lows currently in the region and none are
expected for the next 7 days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Sunday          Very Low   
Monday          Very Low   
Tuesday         Very Low   


This will be the final Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Eastern Region until 1
November 2022.

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

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Fiji Tropical Storm Risk

WWPS21 NFFN 172100
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI May 172305 UTC.

NO SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.

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Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Risk

Eastern Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291150
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Sep 29 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Well South of the Baja California Peninsula (EP98):
An area of disturbed weather associated with a sharp trough of low 
pressure is located several hundred miles offshore of southwest 
Mexico and continues to show signs of organization, with earlier 
satellite wind data indicating the surface circulation was better 
defined than earlier. Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in 
the next day or so. The system is forecast to drift westward into 
Tuesday, then turn west-northwestward thereafter, remaining over the 
open waters of the central to western part of the Eastern Pacific. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Just South of of the Baja California Peninsula:
A small area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west of 
Manzanillo, Mexico is producing a small, but concentrated area of 
showers and thunderstorms. Earlier satellite wind data also 
indicated there was a weak surface circulation. Some additional 
development is possible over the next day or two before it merges 
with a larger area of disturbed weather, (EP98), to its southwest. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Near the Southwest Coast of Mexico:
Another area of low pressure is expected to develop off the 
southwest coast of Mexico near the end of the week. Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development 
of the system thereafter and a tropical depression could form by the 
early portion of next week as the system moves generally 
west-northwestward, parallel to the coast of Mexico. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Atlantic Tropical Storm Risk

Atlantic Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC

000
ABNT20 KNHC 291146
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Imelda, located near the northwestern Bahamas, and on 
Hurricane Humberto, located a few hundred miles south-southwest of 
Bermuda. 

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

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Central Pacific Tropical Storm Risk

Central Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the CPHC

ACPN50 PHFO 291150
TWOCP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM HST Mon Sep 29 2025

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin
NNNN

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Servicio Meteorológico Nacional - Atlantic

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional - Eastern Pacific

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