Cyclocane

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TEN-E Current Status

Current Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 55 knots / 65 MPH at 2024-09-25T00:00:00.000Z

TEN-E Land Hazards

• RAINFALL - Through Thursday, the Tropical Depression is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thursday.
• WIND - Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area beginning on Tuesday.
• SURF - Swells associated with the depression are forecast to begin to affect the coast of southern Mexico on Monday, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of the week. Please see local statements for more information.

TEN-E Tracker

TEN-E Satellite Loop

TEN-E Alternate Tracking Map

TEN-E Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for TEN-E can be found here:

TEN-E spaghetti models page »

TEN-E Watches and Warnings

Tropical Depression TEN-E Tropical Cyclone Update

Tropical Depression TEN-E Public Advisory

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 230232
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102024
900 PM CST Sun Sep 22 2024
 
...DEPRESSION CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 98.6W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado to Salina Cruz
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E
was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 98.6 West. The
depression is nearly stationary, but a slow northeastward motion is
expected later tonight and Monday.  A northeastward to
east-northeastward motion is anticipated on Tuesday and Wednesday.
On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move
near the southern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
system will likely become a tropical storm tonight or early Monday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header
WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml
 
RAINFALL: Through Thursday, the Tropical Depression is expected to 
produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches 
across the coastal areas of Chiapas.  In areas along and near the 
Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain 
with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through 
Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with 
Tropical Depression Ten, please see the National Weather Service 
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at 
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep10.shtml?rainqpf 
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the
watch area beginning on Tuesday.

SURF:  Swells associated with the depression are forecast to begin 
to affect the coast of southern Mexico on Monday, with the 
potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of the week.  
Please see local statements for more information.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Tropical Depression TEN-E Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 230233
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102024
900 PM CST Sun Sep 22 2024
 
Satellite images show that the depression is gradually becoming 
better organized, with some convective banding features developing 
around the circulation and a small area of very cold cloud tops 
over the estimated center.  Upper-level outflow is fairly well 
defined over the southern semicircle of the system.  Subjective 
Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB indicate a T-number of 
2.0, so the advisory intensity is held at 30 kt for now.
 
Center fixes indicate little movement since earlier today, so the 
initial motion estimate is nearly stationary.  As noted earlier, 
the track forecast for this tropical cyclone is quite problematic, 
with a large spread in the guidance models.  The regional hurricane 
models are generally east of the global guidance, with the ECMWF on 
the western side of the model tracks.  The most recent run of the 
GFS takes the cyclone inland in a couple of days but later 
develops one or two new centers offshore.   Since the dominant 
steering mechanism seems to be the Central American Gyre, the 
official track forecast shows a mainly east-northeastward motion 
during the forecast period, along the southern periphery of the 
Gyre.  This track moves the center close to the southern coast of 
Mexico for several days before making landfall, and lies between 
the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus predictions.  

During most of the forecast period, the system should remain over 
very warm waters with low vertical wind shear and in a moist low- 
to mid-level air mass.  Therefore strengthening is likely, and the 
official intensity forecast is similar to the statistical-dynamical 
LGEM guidance.  One major source of uncertainty in the forecast is 
how much the system interacts with land during the next few days.  
Given the favorable environment, it is possible that the system 
could become a hurricane before landfall.  Interests along the coast 
of southern Mexico should closely monitor the latest forecast 
updates for this system.  A Hurricane Watch could be required for a 
portion of the coast now covered by a Tropical Storm Watch. 
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Slow-moving Tropical Depression Ten-E will bring very heavy 
rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through the 
upcoming week.  This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant 
and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and 
mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast 
Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast.  

2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later 
tonight or on Monday.   A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for a 
portion of the coastline of southern Mexico, where tropical storm 
conditions could begin on Tuesday.
 
3. The system could strengthen more than forecast depending on how 
long it remains over water. Interests along the coast of southern 
Mexico should monitor the latest forecast updates, as a Hurricane 
Watch could be required for a portion of the coastline later tonight 
or on Monday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0300Z 13.9N  98.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 14.3N  98.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 14.6N  97.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 15.0N  97.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 15.2N  96.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  25/1200Z 15.6N  95.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 16.3N  94.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 96H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

TEN-E storm path from NHC

site by Hayley Croft

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