Cyclocane

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0725 UTC 02/01/2022
Name: Ex Tropical Cyclone Seth
Identifier: 08U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 26.5S
Longitude: 158.6E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: south southwest (207 deg)
Speed of Movement: 8 knots (15 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 60 knots (110 km/h)
Central Pressure: 987 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 180 nm (335 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 60 nm (110 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: 
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 220 nm (405 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  02/1200: 27.0S 158.2E:     040 (075):  040  (075):  981
+12:  02/1800: 27.3S 157.9E:     050 (095):  040  (075):  981
+18:  03/0000: 27.6S 157.5E:     060 (110):  040  (075):  979
+24:  03/0600: 27.6S 157.3E:     065 (120):  035  (065):  981
+36:  03/1800: 27.2S 156.6E:     080 (145):  035  (065):  984
+48:  04/0600: 26.8S 156.2E:     100 (180):  030  (055):  989
+60:  04/1800: 26.2S 155.5E:     120 (225):  030  (055):  989
+72:  05/0600: 26.1S 154.9E:     150 (280):  030  (055):  989
+96:  06/0600: 26.5S 153.1E:     210 (390):  025  (045):  993
+120: 07/0600: 28.3S 152.2E:     350 (650):  020  (035):  995
REMARKS:
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Seth has lost its tropical structure as it interacts with
an upper trough and has transitioned to a sub-tropical system. Deep convection
is no longer present. 

CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates of 39 and 46 knots respectively (1 minute
means). The AiDT is 51 knots (1 minute mean). No recent surface observations.
The baroclinic influence on the system from the amplifying upper trough is
likely to be sufficient to sustain gale force winds through Sunday and Monday.
Intensity set  to 40 knots.  

The CIMMS 00Z wind shear analysis shows the system under WNW'ly shear of 12
knots, although there is a strong shear gradient to the south.  
 
Recent movement is to the south at an increasing speed. The system is expected
to slow and turn southwest during Sunday evening. From Monday, steering
influences are finely balanced with mid-level anticyclones to the east and
west. Model guidance indicates high uncertainty in the track through the middle
to late part of the week.  

The most significant hazard to coastal communities in the short to medium term
is large waves and abnormally high tides that could affect a significant
stretch of coastline over the duration of this event. As Seth approaches the
southeast Queensland coast during Tuesday and Wednesday there will be strong
and gusty winds ahead of the system possibly damaging. 

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system. Refer to Severe Weather Warnings.

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Ex Tropical Cyclone Seth Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.

Seth storm path from BOM - EASTERN

Time	Speed	Location	Status
2022-01-02T07:25:00.000Z	40 knots	-26.5, 158.6

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