Cyclocane

( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )

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PTC-SIX Current Status

Current Wind Speed 43 knots / 50 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 70 knots / 80 MPH at 2024-09-11T18:00:00.000Z

Current Watches/Warnings / Radar / Satellite

current US watches/warnings

live tornado/thunderstorm tracker - tornadohq

future radar imagery - my future radar

current radar loop

If you're looking for other US radar loops, check out Radar Monster.

future radar imagery

(above image is an example of the Western North Atlantic page - see Atlantic future radar page for a full set of images)

If a tropical storm or hurricane is threatening land, you can check my future radar for an idea of what radar might look like as the storm approaches.

PTC-SIX Land Hazards

• WIND - Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the northern coast of Mexico and extreme southern Texas beginning Tuesday.
• RAINFALL - Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward along portions of the southern Texas Coast and across southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning. This rainfall would lead to the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding.
• STORM SURGE - Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in areas of onshore winds.
• SURF - Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the Gulf coast of Mexico and are expected to spread northwestward across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline through midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

PTC-SIX Tracker

PTC-SIX Satellite Loop

PTC-SIX Alternate Tracking Map

PTC-SIX Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for PTC-SIX can be found here:

PTC-SIX spaghetti models page »

PTC-SIX Watches and Warnings

Potential Tropical Cyclone PTC-SIX Tropical Cyclone Update

Potential Tropical Cyclone PTC-SIX Public Advisory

000
WTNT31 KNHC 091137
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062024
700 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024
 
...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS BY
MID-WEEK...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 94.9W
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Hurricane, Storm Surge, and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be
required for portions of the Louisiana and Upper Texas coast later
today.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
22.0 North, longitude 94.9 West.  The system is moving toward the
north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h).  A slow northwestward to
northward motion is expected over the next day or so, followed by a
faster motion to the northeast beginning late Tuesday.  On the
forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move just offshore of
the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico through Tuesday, and approach the
Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on Wednesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. 
The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today, 
with more significant intensification forecast to occur on Tuesday 
and Wednesday. The system is forecast to become a hurricane before 
it reaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours... high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area along the northern coast of Mexico and extreme southern Texas
beginning Tuesday.
 
RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring storm
total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches,
from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward along portions of
the southern Texas Coast and across southern Louisiana and southern
Mississippi into Thursday morning.  This rainfall would lead to the
risk of considerable flash and urban flooding.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.
 
STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of
Mexico in areas of onshore winds.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the
Gulf coast of Mexico and are expected to spread northwestward across
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline through midweek.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Potential Tropical Cyclone PTC-SIX Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT41 KNHC 090859
TCDAT1
 
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062024
400 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024

Satellite imagery shows that the disturbance is producing 
considerable deep convection with cloud tops colder than -70 deg C. 
However, the cloud pattern is still in the organizing stage with not 
much evidence of banding features at this time.  Upper-level outflow 
is becoming established over the area.  Observations from an Air 
Force reconnaissance aircraft, data buoy 42055, and a partial ASCAT 
overpass suggest that the system has not yet developed a well- 
defined center of circulation.  The intensity is held at 45 kt for 
this advisory with the assumption of some undersampling of the winds 
over the western part of the circulation.  However, this could be 
generous.

Since the center is still not well defined, the initial motion is a 
rather uncertain, but slow, 340/4 kt.  During the next day or so, 
the system is expected to move along the western side of a mid-level 
ridge over the Gulf of Mexico.  This motion should keep the core of 
the system off the coast of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas 
for the next 24-36 hours.  Then, a shortwave trough over Texas is 
expected to induce a turn toward the northeast with an increase in 
forward speed, which would take the center of the system near and 
across the northwestern or northern Gulf coast late Wednesday.  The 
official track forecast has again been nudged eastward in the 48-72 
hour period, but not quite as far east as the ECMWF and corrected 
consensus model predictions.  It should be noted that confidence in 
the track forecast is lower than normal since the system lacks a 
well-defined center. 

Since the system is still not very well-organized and lacks an inner 
core structure, only slow strengthening is expected through this 
morning.  However, the disturbance is expected to soon become better 
organized while remaining over very warm waters, with high low- to 
mid-tropospheric humidity, and low vertical shear for the next 48 
hours.  Therefore steady strengthening is likely to begin by later 
today.  This is also shown by most of the numerical guidance.  When 
the system nears landfall, the global models show increasing 
upper-level westerlies near the northwestern Gulf coast, and this 
could lead to stronger vertical wind shear over the cyclone.  
Therefore the rate of strengthening could at least level off as the 
center nears the coast.  The official intensity forecast is similar 
to the previous NHC prediction, close to the Decay-SHIPS guidance, 
and continues to show the system as a hurricane at landfall.

 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm today as it
moves near the western Gulf of Mexico coast.  Tropical Storm Watches
are in effect for northeastern Mexico and extreme southern Texas.
 
2. The system is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches
the northwestern Gulf Coast by the middle of the week.  While it is
too soon to pinpoint the exact location and magnitude of impacts,
the potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds
are increasing for portions of the Louisiana and Upper Texas
coastlines beginning Tuesday night.  Hurricane and Storm Surge
Watches will likely be issued for a portion of that area later 
today, and residents should ensure they have their hurricane plan in
place.

3. Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring heavy 
rainfall and the risk of considerable flash flooding along the coast 
of far northeast Mexico, portions of southernmost Texas, southern 
Louisiana, and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning.  A risk 
of flash and urban flooding exists across portions of the Mid-South 
from Wednesday into Friday morning.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0900Z 22.2N  94.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  09/1800Z 23.0N  95.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  10/0600Z 24.1N  95.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 25.2N  95.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 26.8N  94.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  11/1800Z 28.5N  93.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  12/0600Z 30.7N  91.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 96H  13/0600Z 34.9N  90.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  14/0600Z 37.5N  89.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

PTC-SIX storm path from NHC

site by Hayley Croft

Play solitaire and track all of the cyclocane storms at the same time at Hurricane Solitaire.