Cyclocane

( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )

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PTC-NINETEEN Current Status

Current Wind Speed 26 knots / 30 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 60 knots / 70 MPH at 2024-11-16T12:00:00.000Z

Current Watches/Warnings / Radar / Satellite

current US watches/warnings

live tornado/thunderstorm tracker - tornadohq

future radar imagery - my future radar

current radar loop

If you're looking for other US radar loops, check out Radar Monster.

future radar imagery

(above image is an example of the Western North Atlantic page - see Atlantic future radar page for a full set of images)

If a tropical storm or hurricane is threatening land, you can check my future radar for an idea of what radar might look like as the storm approaches.

PTC-NINETEEN Land Hazards

• RAINFALL - Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.
• WIND - Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area beginning late today.
• STORM SURGE - Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

PTC-NINETEEN Tracker

PTC-NINETEEN Satellite Loop

PTC-NINETEEN Alternate Tracking Map

PTC-NINETEEN Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for PTC-NINETEEN can be found here:

PTC-NINETEEN spaghetti models page »

PTC-NINETEEN Watches and Warnings

Potential Tropical Cyclone PTC-NINETEEN Tropical Cyclone Update

Potential Tropical Cyclone PTC-NINETEEN Public Advisory

000
WTNT34 KNHC 140543
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
100 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
 
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN HONDURAS LATER THIS
WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 81.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Castilla to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Sal to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras/Nicaragua Border to Puerto Cabezas
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in Honduras, and in Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.  For storm
information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 
16.0 North, longitude 81.2 West. The system is moving toward the 
west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward motion should continue for 
another day or so, taking the system across the western Caribbean 
Sea. The disturbance is expected to stall and meander near the north 
coast of Honduras late Friday and through the weekend.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm later 
today and continue strengthening, if it remains over water.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20
inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.
 
Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Potential Tropical Cyclone
Nineteen is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will
result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with
the potential of mudslides.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch
area by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
warning area and possible in the watch area beginning late today.
 
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Potential Tropical Cyclone PTC-NINETEEN Forecast Discussion

038 
WTNT44 KNHC 140234
TCDAT4
 
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
1000 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024
 
The disturbance has not changed much over the past several hours
with deep convection persisting near and to the west of the
estimated center. Although the convection is relatively well
organized, the definition of the low-level circulation remains poor,
and for that reason, the system is not yet a tropical depression.
The initial intensity remains 25 kt and the minimum pressure is
around 1005 mb based on surface observations.
 
The system continues to move westward at about 8 kt on the south
side of a mid-level ridge that is centered near the Florida Straits.
This ridge should keep the disturbance on a westward track
until Friday, taking the system over or just north of eastern
Honduras. After that, the ridge is expected to break down, and the
models agree that cyclone will meander in weak steering currents
from late Friday through the weekend. This expected slow motion will
cause the system to produce heavy rains over the same region,
likely causing life-threatening flooding over portions of Central
America. By early next week, ridging should become re-established
over Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, which should cause the
system to move northwestward across Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula. The NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the
various consensus models.
 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for strengthening during
the next few days with vertical wind shear expected to be low and
mid-level humidities forecast to remain relatively high near the
system. However, there remains a significant amount of uncertainty
in how much land interaction there will be with Honduras during the
next several days. If the system remains offshore, it will likely
take advantage of the conducive atmospheric and oceanic conditions
and at least steadily strengthen through the weekend. However, if
the system moves even a little south of the forecast track, notably
less strengthening or even weakening could occur. The NHC intensity
forecast follows the trend of the previous one and is near the
middle of the guidance envelope. However, it must be stressed that
there is a lot of uncertainty in this intensity forecast.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant,
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of
Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador,
eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua.
 
2. The disturbance is forecast to be near hurricane strength when
it moves near the eastern coast of Honduras and northeastern
Nicaragua on Friday and Saturday. Hurricane watches and tropical
storm warnings are in effect for portions of that area.
 
3. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico at or near hurricane strength by early next week
where there is a risk of dangerous storm surge and damaging winds.
Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates
and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.
 
4. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring
to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the
Florida Keys, and Cuba during the middle portion of next week.
Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the
forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0300Z 16.1N  80.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  14/1200Z 16.1N  82.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  15/0000Z 16.2N  83.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 16.3N  84.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 48H  16/0000Z 16.2N  85.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 60H  16/1200Z 16.0N  85.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 72H  17/0000Z 15.9N  85.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 96H  18/0000Z 16.6N  86.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  19/0000Z 19.3N  89.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

PTC-NINETEEN storm path from NHC

site by Hayley Croft

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