Cyclocane
( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )
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This storm is unnamed. If the information appears to be out of date, its name may have changed, so visit the main page for the latest information.
PTC-FOUR Current Status
...DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING ACROSS CUBA...
Current Wind Speed 26 knots / 30 MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 55 knots / 65 MPH at
Current Watches/Warnings / Radar / Satellite
current US watches/warnings
live tornado/thunderstorm tracker - tornadohq
future radar imagery - my future radar
future radar imagery
(above image is an example of the Western North Atlantic page - see Atlantic future radar page for a full set of images)
If a tropical storm or hurricane is threatening land, you can check my future radar for an idea of what radar might look like as the storm approaches.
PTC-FOUR Land Hazards
NWS Local Hurricane Statements
Miami FL AL042024 **POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR NEAR CENTRAL CUBA**Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL AL042024 ...STORM SURGE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
Melbourne FL AL042024 **Tropical Storm Watch in effect for Lake County**
Key West FL AL042024 **Tropical Storm Watch Remains in Effect**
- WINDS - Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula by Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida west coast Saturday night or Sunday.
- STORM SURGE - The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
- RAINFALL - Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 12 inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend through Wednesday morning. This rainfall may result in areas of flash and urban flooding, with isolated river flooding possible.
- TORNADOES - A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and the western Florida Peninsula Saturday night through Sunday morning.
PTC-FOUR Tracker
PTC-FOUR Satellite Loop
PTC-FOUR Alternate Tracking Map
PTC-FOUR Spaghetti Models
Spaghetti models for PTC-FOUR can be found here:
PTC-FOUR spaghetti models page »
PTC-FOUR Watches and Warnings
Potential Tropical Cyclone PTC-FOUR Tropical Cyclone Update
Potential Tropical Cyclone PTC-FOUR Public Advisory
551 WTNT34 KNHC 022346 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 800 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024 ...DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING ACROSS CUBA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 78.9W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM W OF CAMAGUEY CUBA ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to Boca Grande A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge including the Dry Tortugas * The southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card Sound Bridge * The west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Boca Grande to the mouth of the Suwannee River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional warnings and watches may be required for a portion of this area tonight and Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 78.9 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the northwest at a slower forward speed is expected tonight or Saturday, followed by a turn toward the north on Sunday. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move over Cuba tonight, cross the Straits of Florida into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and then move near or over the west coast of Florida Saturday night through Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical depression tonight or on Saturday while over Cuba or the Straits of Florida, followed by intensification into a tropical storm over the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday night. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Surface observations from Cuba and the Cayman Islands indicate that the minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula by Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida west coast Saturday night or Sunday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach, FL to Suwannee River, FL...2-4 ft Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Card Sound Bridge, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1-3 ft RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 12 inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend through Wednesday morning. This rainfall may result in areas of flash and urban flooding, with isolated river flooding possible. For Cuba, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with localized higher amounts, will be possible today into Saturday. This may result in isolated to scattered areas of flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Four, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and the western Florida Peninsula Saturday night through Sunday morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Public Advisory not available for this storm.
Potential Tropical Cyclone PTC-FOUR Forecast Discussion
000 WTNT44 KNHC 022036 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 500 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Convection and vorticity associated with the tropical wave, now over central Cuba, have both increased a little this afternoon. However, the circulation is still not well-defined, and the convection is not yet well enough organized to consider the system to be a tropical depression. So, the system remains a potential tropical cyclone at this time. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter is currently investigating the northern side of the wave, and a combination of its dropsondes and earlier scatterometer data suggest that the maximum winds remain near 25 kt. The poorly-defined center has moved more westward since the previous advisory. However the overall motion remains about 290/14 kt. A turn toward the northwest and north is expected during the next couple of days as the system moves into a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the Ohio Valley. This should be followed by recurvature into the westerlies after 48-60 h. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move into the Straits of Florida and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, followed by a motion near the west coast of Florida Saturday night and Sunday. After that time, the system should cross the northern Florida peninsula and move over the Atlantic near or offshore of the southeastern coast of the United States. While the track guidance generally agrees with this scenario, there are a couple of issues. First, the GFS moves the system much faster northeastward, and by 72 h it is forecasting the center to be off of the South Carolina coast. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and UKMET still have the center over the Gulf of Mexico. Second, due to the track being almost parallel to both the west coast of the Florida peninsula and the southeastern U. S. coast, small changes in the track could cause large differences in potential landfalls and which land areas receive the strongest impacts. There is little change in the intensity forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. Slow development is possible while the system is over Cuba, and the system is likely to become a tropical depression soon after it moves offshore on Saturday. The environment over the Gulf of Mexico is quite favorable for strengthening with light shear and very warm sea-surface temperatures, so subsequent steady strengthening is expected. The two biggest uncertainties in the intensity forecast are how long the system will remain offshore of Florida and how long it will take to consolidate. The system is likely to weaken as it crosses Florida, with re-intensification likely over the Atlantic after 72 h. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall may result in flash and urban flooding across portions of Florida and the coastal areas of the Southeast this weekend through Wednesday morning. Isolated river flooding will also be possible. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected Saturday night within the Tropical Storm Warning area in southwest Florida from East Cape Sable to Boca Grande. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Florida Keys on Saturday and along the Florida west coast north of Boca Grande to Suwannee River Saturday night and Sunday where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 3. There is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor, where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. 4. Impacts from storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rains are possible elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the United States from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of next week, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later tonight and on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 21.4N 78.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 03/0600Z 22.4N 80.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 03/1800Z 24.2N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 04/0600Z 26.1N 83.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 28.1N 83.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 29.7N 82.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 72H 05/1800Z 30.9N 81.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 06/1800Z 32.6N 80.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR COAST 120H 07/1800Z 34.5N 77.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
PTC-FOUR storm path from NHC
| Time | Speed | Location | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 knots | 21.4, -78.9 | ||
| 25 knots | 22.4, -80.1 | translation missing: en.POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE | |
| 30 knots | 24.2, -82.2 | TROPICAL CYCLONE | |
| 35 knots | 26.1, -83.3 | ||
| 45 knots | 28.1, -83.3 | ||
| 55 knots | 29.7, -82.9 | translation missing: en.INLAND | |
| 40 knots | 30.9, -81.9 | translation missing: en.INLAND | |
| 45 knots | 32.6, -80.0 | translation missing: en.NEAR COAST | |
| 55 knots | 34.5, -77.0 |
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