Cyclocane

( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )

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PTC-FOUR-E Current Status

Current Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 60 knots / 70 MPH at 2025-06-15T06:00:00.000Z

PTC-FOUR-E Land Hazards

• RAINFALL - Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts up to 6 inches, are possible across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima through this weekend. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides.
• WIND - Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on Saturday.
• SURF - Swells generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

PTC-FOUR-E Tracker

PTC-FOUR-E Satellite Loop

PTC-FOUR-E Alternate Tracking Map

PTC-FOUR-E Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for PTC-FOUR-E can be found here:

PTC-FOUR-E spaghetti models page »

PTC-FOUR-E Watches and Warnings

Potential Tropical Cyclone PTC-FOUR-E Tropical Cyclone Update

Potential Tropical Cyclone PTC-FOUR-E Public Advisory

872 
WTPZ34 KNHC 131134
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042025
600 AM CST Fri Jun 13 2025
 
...DISTURBANCE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A 
TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 101.3W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tecpan De Galeana to Manzanillo
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning may be required for portions of the watch
area later today. The Tropical Storm Watch may need to be extended 
northward later today.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
13.4 North, longitude 101.3 West. The system is moving toward the
north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is
expected later today, with a turn toward the west-northwest forecast
by Sunday.  On the forecast track, the disturbance is forecast to
move parallel to, but offshore of, the southwestern coast of Mexico.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. The
system is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and
continue strengthening on Saturday as it moves parallel to the coast
of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high ...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts
up to 6 inches, are possible across portions of the Mexican states
of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima through this weekend. This
rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
on Saturday.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E will
affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next
few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Potential Tropical Cyclone PTC-FOUR-E Forecast Discussion

372 
WTPZ44 KNHC 130832
TCDEP4
 
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042025
300 AM CST Fri Jun 13 2025

Satellite imagery and scatterometer data indicate that the 
disturbance is gradually becoming better organized, with the 
convective banding increasing and the circulation becoming better 
defined. However, the system does not yet have either enough 
organized convection or a sufficiently well-defined circulation to 
be considered a tropical cyclone.  The scatterometer data showed 
25-30 kt winds about 120 n mi south and southeast of the center, so 
the initial intensity remains 30 kt.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 335/8 kt.  Satellite 
imagery shows that the depression is currently south of a mid- to 
upper-level trough over Texas and northern Mexico and southeast of 
a mid- to upper-level ridge over Baja California and the adjacent 
Pacific.  The dynamical models forecast that the trough will weaken 
and move eastward during the next 2-3 days, with the ridge building 
eastward to the north of the system.  This evolution should cause 
the disturbance to turn northwestward later today, followed by a 
west-northwestward and westward motion later in the forecast period. 
The forecast guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and 
the new forecast track is close to the various consensus models and 
just a little north of the previous track. There is a possibility 
of erratic motion today as the system gets better organized, and 
this may affect how close the system will come to the coast of 
Mexico.

The forecast track keeps the system over warm sea surface 
temperatures for the next 36-48 h.  However, a combination of the 
broad structure and moderate easterly vertical wind shear is likely 
to slow the development.  The new intensity guidance is a little 
lower than for the previous forecast, and the forecast peak 
intensity of 60 kt is near the high end of the guidance envelope.  
After 48 h, cooler waters and drier mid-level air will lead to 
steady weakening, and the system is forecast to dissipate
by 120 h.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. The outer bands of Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E may bring 
locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, 
and Colima through this weekend. Isolated flooding and mudslides, 
especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible.
 
2. The disturbance is forecast to be at tropical storm strength when
it moves near the southwestern coast of Mexico on Saturday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible over portions of that area.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/0900Z 12.8N 100.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  13/1800Z 13.7N 101.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  14/0600Z 14.9N 103.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  14/1800Z 16.0N 104.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  15/0600Z 16.9N 106.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  15/1800Z 17.4N 108.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  16/0600Z 17.6N 110.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  17/0600Z 18.0N 114.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

PTC-FOUR-E storm path from NHC

site by Hayley Croft

Play solitaire and track all of the cyclocane storms at the same time at Hurricane Solitaire.