Cyclocane

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PTC-FIVE-E Current Status

Current Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 80 knots / 90 MPH at 2025-06-19T06:00:00.000Z

PTC-FIVE-E Land Hazards

• RAINFALL - Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E may produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, across coastal sections of El Salvador, Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Tabasco and Veracruz. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum totals of 12 inches, are possible across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall may produce life threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.
• WIND - Hurricane conditions could occur along portions of southern Mexico by late Wednesday or Thursday.
• SURF - Swells generated by the system are expected to begin affecting the coast of southern Mexico in a day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

PTC-FIVE-E Tracker

PTC-FIVE-E Satellite Loop

PTC-FIVE-E Alternate Tracking Map

PTC-FIVE-E Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for PTC-FIVE-E can be found here:

PTC-FIVE-E spaghetti models page »

PTC-FIVE-E Watches and Warnings

Potential Tropical Cyclone PTC-FIVE-E Tropical Cyclone Update

Potential Tropical Cyclone PTC-FIVE-E Public Advisory

960 
WTPZ35 KNHC 162051
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052025
300 PM CST Mon Jun 16 2025
 
...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED STRENGTHEN AND BRING SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND 
RAIN TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 91.7W
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
10.6 North, longitude 91.7 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A turn toward the northwest 
is expected later today or tonight, and this motion is forecast to 
continue for the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The system 
is expected to become a tropical storm on Tuesday and a hurricane on 
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header
MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E may produce rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, across
coastal sections of El Salvador, Guatemala and the Mexican states of
Chiapas, Tabasco and Veracruz.  Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches,
with maximum totals of 12 inches, are possible across the Mexican
states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall may produce life
threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep
terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions could occur along portions of southern
Mexico by late Wednesday or Thursday.

SURF:  Swells generated by the system are expected to begin 
affecting the coast of southern Mexico in a day or so.  These 
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Mora/Cano

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Potential Tropical Cyclone PTC-FIVE-E Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 162052
TCDEP5
 
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052025
300 PM CST Mon Jun 16 2025
 
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low 
pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of the coast of 
Guatemala have increased in organization over the past couple of 
days.  Visible satellite imagery shows an exposed elongated 
low-level center south of a burst of modest convective activity.  
The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on a partial overpass of 
satellite scatterometer data.  Since the system is expected to 
develop and affect southern Mexico late Wednesday or Thursday, 
advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five.

The initial motion is estimated to be 295/7 kt, but this is 
uncertain due to the lack of a defined core.  The low is moving 
along the western periphery of a ridge centered over the 
southwestern Atlantic, and this feature should control the motion of 
the system for the entirety of the forecast period.  Most global and 
regional models predict the low will turn toward the northwest later 
today or tonight, and that motion should persist for the next few 
days.  There is noticeable spread in the along-track speed of the 
system among the various models.  The GFS and some of the regional 
models show a slower motion while the ECMWF and HCCA anticipate a 
quicker forward speed.  The NHC forecast track lies closest to a 
blend of the GFS and the ECMWF, near the center of the guidance 
envelope.

The low should remain over an area of very warm waters and within a 
conducive environment for strengthening.  SHIPS-EC shows a 50 
percent chance of 55 kt of strengthening in 48 hr, which highlights 
the possibility of rapid intensification in the coming days.  The 
official forecast predicts the disturbance will become a tropical 
storm in about a day and a hurricane in a couple of days.  The NHC 
forecast lies near the higher end of the intensity guidance 
envelope.  This system is expected to bring significant winds upon 
landfall in southern Mexico in the next few days or so.  However, it 
is important to note that uncertainty remains high in the exact 
location of potential impacts, and interests in southern Mexico 
should closely monitor the latest forecasts.  

NHC now has the ability to issue tropical cyclone advisory products 
for Potential Tropical Cyclones up to 72 hours before the 
anticipated arrival of tropical-storm-force winds on land when 
confidence is high that there is a significant risk of wind or storm 
surge impacts to land, regardless of the immediate need for 
land-based hurricane or tropical storm watches or warnings,   
Previously, Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories could be issued up 
to 48 hours beforehand.   Appropriate watches and warnings will 
still be issued 48 and 36 hours, respectively, before the onset of 
tropical-storm-force winds.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm on Tuesday 
and quickly strengthen into a hurricane by Wednesday as it 
approaches southern Mexico.  Hurricane watches will likely be 
required for portions of southern Mexico tonight or early Tuesday.. 

2. The system will likely produce heavy rainfall across portions of 
Central America and southern Mexico through this week.  
Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in 
areas of steep terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/2100Z 10.6N  91.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  17/0600Z 11.1N  92.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 24H  17/1800Z 11.8N  93.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 12.6N  94.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  18/1800Z 13.5N  95.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  19/0600Z 14.5N  96.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  19/1800Z 15.8N  97.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  20/1800Z 17.0N  98.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Mora/Cano

PTC-FIVE-E storm path from NHC

site by Hayley Croft

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