Cyclocane

( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )

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PTC-FIFTEEN Current Status

Current Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 35 knots / 40 MPH at 2024-10-19T12:00:00.000Z

Current Watches/Warnings / Radar / Satellite

current US watches/warnings

live tornado/thunderstorm tracker - tornadohq

future radar imagery - my future radar

current radar loop

If you're looking for other US radar loops, check out Radar Monster.

future radar imagery

(above image is an example of the Western North Atlantic page - see Atlantic future radar page for a full set of images)

If a tropical storm or hurricane is threatening land, you can check my future radar for an idea of what radar might look like as the storm approaches.

PTC-FIFTEEN Land Hazards

• RAINFALL - Widespread 4-8 inch rainfall amounts are expected across northern Belize, northern Guatemala, and the southern states of Mexico from Quintana Roo westward to Veracruz. Isolated areas of amounts exceeding 12 inches are also possible through late Tuesday.
• WIND - Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on Saturday.
• STORM SURGE - Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore flow near and to the north of where the center moves inland.

PTC-FIFTEEN Tracker

PTC-FIFTEEN Satellite Loop

PTC-FIFTEEN Alternate Tracking Map

PTC-FIFTEEN Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for PTC-FIFTEEN can be found here:

PTC-FIFTEEN spaghetti models page »

PTC-FIFTEEN Watches and Warnings

Potential Tropical Cyclone PTC-FIFTEEN Tropical Cyclone Update

Potential Tropical Cyclone PTC-FIFTEEN Public Advisory

000
WTNT35 KNHC 190237
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152024
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024
 
...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE REACHING
THE COAST OF BELIZE ON SATURDAY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS
OF BELIZE AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 86.1W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Belize City, Belize to Tulum, Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12-24 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products 
issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near 
latitude 17.6 North, longitude 86.1 West. The system is moving 
toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion should 
continue through Saturday night. On the forecast track, the system 
is expected to move inland along the coast of Belize on Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some gradual strengthening is anticipated, and the disturbance is 
forecast to become a tropical storm before making landfall tomorrow.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at 
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml
 
RAINFALL: Widespread 4-8 inch rainfall amounts are expected across
northern Belize, northern Guatemala, and the southern states of
Mexico from Quintana Roo westward to Veracruz. Isolated areas of
amounts exceeding 12 inches are also possible through late Tuesday.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
on Saturday.
 
STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore 
flow near and to the north of where the center moves inland.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Potential Tropical Cyclone PTC-FIFTEEN Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT45 KNHC 190239
TCDAT5
 
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152024
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024
 
The satellite presentation of the disturbance has improved this 
evening. Curved bands of deep convection have developed closer to 
the estimated center position, although it is unclear from recent 
passive microwave imagery whether a well-defined surface center 
exists yet. The strongest winds are occurring within the convective 
bands to the north of the center, where NOAA buoy 42056 has reported 
sustained winds of 25-30 kt and gusts to tropical storm force. Based 
on these observations and available satellite data, the system will 
remain a 30-kt potential tropical cyclone for this advisory. Data 
from an ASCAT-C overpass will arrive within the next couple of 
hours, which should provide some clarity about the current intensity 
of the system and whether it has a well-defined center.

The disturbance appears to be moving westward at about 7 kt to the 
south of a high pressure ridge over the eastern United States. The 
latest track guidance agrees that the system should continue on a 
westward heading through Saturday night and cross the coast of 
Belize between 12-24 h from now. The latest NHC track forecast is 
very similar to the previous prediction and remains close to the 
multi-model consensus aids.

Despite limited time remaining over water, warm SSTs and relatively 
low shear in a moist environment should allow the system to 
consolidate and strengthen into a tropical storm before it moves 
ashore. The strongest winds are forecast to occur within the 
northern semicircle, and a Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect 
from Belize City northward to Tulum, Mexico. Weakening is expected 
once the system moves inland, and it is forecast to dissipate over 
southern Mexico by early Sunday.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen is expected to bring impacts 
from heavy rain, coastal flooding, and high surf to portions of 
Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico this weekend. Localized 
areas of flash flooding are possible as the system moves westward 
through southern Mexico, northern Guatemala, and northern Belize.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the 
coasts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico within the 
Tropical Storm Watch area by early Saturday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0300Z 17.6N  86.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  19/1200Z 17.5N  87.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  20/0000Z 17.3N  90.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

PTC-FIFTEEN storm path from NHC

site by Hayley Croft

Play solitaire and track all of the cyclocane storms at the same time at Hurricane Solitaire.