Cyclocane
( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )
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This is the final warning / advisory for this storm as it has weakened below warning levels and/or the storm system is no longer a tropical cyclone.
PILAR Current Status
...PILAR DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
Current Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH at
PILAR Land Hazards
PILAR Tracker
PILAR Satellite Loop
PILAR Alternate Tracking Map
PILAR Spaghetti Models
Spaghetti models for PILAR can be found here:
PILAR Watches and Warnings
Post-Tropical Cyclone PILAR Tropical Cyclone Update
Post-Tropical Cyclone PILAR Public Advisory
229 WTPZ34 KNHC 060241 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Pilar Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023 800 PM MST Sun Nov 05 2023 ...PILAR DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.7N 114.8W ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Pilar was located near latitude 10.7 North, longitude 114.8 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and the remnant low is forecast to dissipate in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Pilar. Additional information on the remnant low can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Brown
Public Advisory not available for this storm.
Post-Tropical Cyclone PILAR Forecast Discussion
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 060242 TCDEP4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Pilar Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023 800 PM MST Sun Nov 05 2023 After the low- and mid-level centers of Pilar decoupled this morning, the system has failed to produce any deep convection near the center. Although the system is still located over warm SSTs, dry mid-level air and strong mid-level shear is likely to prevent organized deep convection from returning. Therefore, Pilar has become a post-tropical remnant low. The initial wind speed has been lowered to 30 kt, based on a blend of the available satellite estimates, but this could be generous. The system could still produce a few bursts of deep convection during the next day or so, but it should continue to gradually spin down. The global model guidance indicates that the circulation will degenerate into a trough of low pressure within 2-3 days, if not sooner. They cyclone is moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two as the low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the system weakens. Since the system has become vertically shallow, the NHC track is along the left or south side of the guidance envelop between the shallow Trajectory and Beta model (TABS), and the GFS and UKMET ensemble means. This is the last NHC advisory on Pilar. Additional information on the remnant low can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 10.7N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 06/1200Z 11.2N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/0000Z 11.9N 116.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/1200Z 12.9N 117.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0000Z 13.9N 119.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
PILAR storm path from NHC
| Time | Speed | Location | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 knots | 10.7, -114.8 | translation missing: en.POST-TROPICAL | |
| 25 knots | 11.2, -115.7 | POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE | |
| 25 knots | 11.9, -116.7 | POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE | |
| 20 knots | 12.9, -117.9 | POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE | |
| 20 knots | 13.9, -119.1 | POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE | |
| 0 knots | translation missing: en.DISSIPATED |
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