Cyclocane

WTPS31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN) WARNING NR 025    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070000Z --- NEAR 27.3S 175.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 27.3S 175.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 29.5S 177.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 27.9S 177.3E.
07MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NIRAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 572
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 
20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND THE LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOW FULLY EXPOSED. THE INITIAL POSITION 
WAS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI. THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50KTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PGTW 
ESTIMATE OF ST3.0/45KTS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE ADVANCED DVORAK 
TECHNIQUE (ADT) WITH A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.4/53KTS AND 
EXTRAPOLATED USING A PARTIAL PASS FROM A 062212Z METOP-B ASCAT 
IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING 
OFFSET BY VERY STRONG (30-40KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SST) 24-25C. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING ALONG THE 
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE 
EAST. THE HARSH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS, ALONG WITH THE DECREASED SSTS, 
HAS DECREASED THE SYSTEM INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS THE 
SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AND IS EXPECTED TO 
COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. NUMERICAL 
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 12 WITH ONLY A 70NM SPREAD. 
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST TRACK 
AND LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER DUE TO THE INCREASING SPREAD IN MODEL 
SOLUTIONS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT 
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED 
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 
070000Z IS 27 FEET.//
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Public Advisory not available for this storm.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NIRAN Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.

NIRAN storm path from JTWC

Time	Speed	Location	Status
2021-03-07T00:00:00.000Z	50 knots	-27.3, 175.7
2021-03-07T12:00:00.000Z	40 knots	-29.5, -177.8

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