Cyclocane

( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )

English Español Deutsch Français 日本語

NINETEEN-E Current Status

Current Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 60 knots / 70 MPH at 2023-10-31T06:00:00.000Z

NINETEEN-E Land Hazards

• RAINFALL - The tropical depression is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, in and near much of the Pacific coast of Central America, including the country of El Salvador, through Wednesday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.
• SURF - Swells generated by the depression are expected to reach portions of the Pacific coast of Central America on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
• WIND - Tropical storm conditions could begin in the Tropical Storm Watch area early on Tuesday.

NINETEEN-E Tracker

NINETEEN-E Satellite Loop

NINETEEN-E Alternate Tracking Map

NINETEEN-E Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for NINETEEN-E can be found here:

NINETEEN-E spaghetti models page »

NINETEEN-E Watches and Warnings

Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Tropical Cyclone Update

Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Public Advisory

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 292348
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192023
700 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2023

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AMERICA 
THIS WEEK AS THE DEPRESSION MOVES CLOSER TO EL SALVADOR...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 92.4W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of El Salvador
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests in along the coasts of Guatemala, Honduras and
northwestern Nicaragua should monitor the progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression 
Nineteen-E was located near latitude 10.9 North, longitude 92.4 
West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 3 mph (6 
km/h), and a northeast or east-northeastward motion is anticipated 
for the next few days.  On the forecast track, the depression could 
be near the coast of El Salvador on Tuesday night or early 
Wednesday, though the core of the system is likely to stay offshore.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
the system could be near hurricane strength in a couple of days.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  The tropical depression is expected to produce storm
total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches,
in and near much of the Pacific coast of Central America, including
the country of El Salvador, through Wednesday.  This rainfall will
produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of
higher terrain.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by the depression are expected to reach
portions of the Pacific coast of Central America on Monday.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions could begin in the Tropical
Storm Watch area early on Tuesday.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 292056
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192023
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2023

Deep convection has been increasing near the center of the 
depression during the past several hours, mostly on the northwestern 
side of the circulation.  A scatterometer pass at 1600 UTC, however, 
showed only 25-30 kt winds a fair distance northeast of the center.  
With the subjective Dvorak estimates also 30 kt or less, the initial 
wind speed will stay 30 kt on this advisory.  

The scatterometer data suggested that the center was a bit southeast 
of previous estimates, with only a northeastward drift noted during 
the past 24 hours.  The depression should begin to move more 
steadily northeastward or east-northeastward by early Monday due to 
steering flow associated with a mid- to upper-level trough over the 
northwestern Caribbean.  This pattern will likely take the system 
near the coast of El Salvador late on Tuesday, close enough 
to warrant a Tropical Storm Watch, though most of the guidance 
keeps the system offshore. The NHC forecast is shifted southeast of 
the previous one, similar to the guidance trend. A strong cold front 
is expected to push the system west-southwestward away from Central 
America by late Wednesday. Confidence in the details of the track 
forecast remains low since the model guidance has been inconsistent 
with the track of the system, as well as the dependence on the 
incoming cold front.

Gradual intensification is forecast during the next couple of days 
with the system moving over warm waters in light or moderate shear. 
Increasingly southeasterly shear is noted in all of the global 
models on Tuesday, so the NHC forecast will level off then, but is 
still close to hurricane strength.  The latest guidance has come 
down a bit, though since the corrected-consensus guidance is 
unchanged, the NHC forecast is about the same as the previous one.   
At long range, strong vertical wind shear and intrusions of dry and 
stable air will likely cause a weakening trend. 

 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rains from the tropical depression will produce flash and
urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain
along the Pacific coast of Central America, including El Salvador,
through Wednesday.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are possible by early Tuesday into 
Wednesday along portions of the coast of El Salvador where a 
Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect. Interests elsewhere along 
the Pacific coast of Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua should 
monitor the progress of this system as additional watches or 
warnings could be needed tonight or tomorrow.

3. Swells generated by the depression will begin to affect portions 
of the Pacific coast of Central America, including El Salvador, 
beginning on Monday.  These swells are likely to cause 
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/2100Z 10.8N  92.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 10.9N  92.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 11.2N  91.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  31/0600Z 11.7N  90.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  31/1800Z 12.0N  89.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  01/0600Z 12.0N  89.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  01/1800Z 11.4N  89.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  02/1800Z 10.0N  93.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  03/1800Z  9.0N  97.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

NINETEEN-E storm path from NHC

site by Hayley Croft

Play solitaire and track all of the cyclocane storms at the same time at Hurricane Solitaire.