Cyclocane

WTPS31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 008    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181800Z --- NEAR 17.7S 147.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 147.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 17.8S 147.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 147.4E.
18JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 103
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO UNRAVEL AS THE 
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS SHEARED FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE 
RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY. 
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR 
ANIMATION, COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS, AND TRIANGULATION FROM NEARBY 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35KTS IS BASED ON AN 
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND TRENDS ANALYSIS OF 
PGTW T2.5/3.0 (DATA T OF 1.5) AND ABOM T2.0/2.5, AND EXTRAPOLATION 
FROM NEARBY SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM 
IS UNDER RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 25KT+ WITH UPPER LEVEL 
WINDS DIAMETRICALLY AGAINST THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS, RESULTING 
IN A DECOUPLING OF THE LLC. ALTHOUGH THERE IS MODERATE POLEWARD 
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (29C), THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED 
TO RE-CONSOLIDATE, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 12. THE REMNANTS OF 
TC 11P WILL LIKELY DRIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW. 
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN 
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF 
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 12 
FEET.//
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Public Advisory not available for this storm.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KIMI Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.

KIMI storm path from JTWC

Time	Speed	Location	Status
2021-01-18T18:00:00.000Z	35 knots	-17.7, 147.4	dissipating
2021-01-19T06:00:00.000Z	30 knots	-17.8, 147.3	dissipated

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