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JOAQUIN Current Status

...JOAQUIN HAS BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...

Current Wind Speed 55 knots / 65 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 55 knots / 65 MPH at

JOAQUIN Land Hazards

NWS Local Hurricane Statements
Canada - English | français
THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE ON THIS STORM.

JOAQUIN Tracker

JOAQUIN Satellite Loop

JOAQUIN Alternate Tracking Map

JOAQUIN Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for JOAQUIN can be found here:

JOAQUIN spaghetti models page »

JOAQUIN Watches and Warnings

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN Tropical Cyclone Update

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN Public Advisory

000
WTNT31 KNHC 080234
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER  42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
1100 PM AST WED OCT 07 2015

...JOAQUIN HAS BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.0N 37.0W
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Joaquin was located near latitude 42.0 North, longitude 37.0 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east near 35 mph (56
km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Gale-force winds associated with the post-tropical cyclone
are expected to spread over portions of the Azores on Thursday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect Atlantic
Canada during the next day or so.  Swells affecting much of the
eastern coast of the United States are now mostly associated with a
non-tropical area of low pressure over the western Atlantic, and
these swells are expected to continue for the next day or two.
Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in
association with these swells.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Joaquin.  Future information on this system can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the
Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml, and in
high seas forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50
LFPW and available on the web at
http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT41 KNHC 080235
TCDAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
1100 PM AST WED OCT 07 2015

Satellite imagery indicates that the system no longer resembles a
tropical cyclone, with a disorganized area of multi-layered
cloudiness sheared off well to the northeast of the ill-defined
low-level center.  However, model analyses and surface data
indicate that the cyclone is not yet embedded within a frontal
zone, and therefore is not extratropical at this time.  Nonetheless,
since the system lacks sufficient organized deep convection to
qualify as a tropical cyclone, Joaquin is being declared as a post-
tropical cyclone, and advisories are being terminated.  Cyclone
phase space analyses from Florida State University indicate that the
system will become extratropical in about 12 hours, and this is
also shown in the official forecast.  The current intensity is set
at 55 kt in agreement with a recent scatterometer overpass.  Global
models show a gradual spindown of the cyclone over the next several
days, and so does the official forecast.

Post-tropical Joaquin continues to move rapidly toward the east,
or 080/30 kt, while embedded in strong mid-latitude westerlies.
The steering current is forecast to gradually weaken as a mid-level
trough deepens near the Greenwich meridian, and the cyclone should
move at a progressively slower forward speed over the period.  In
2-3 days, the system is forecast to turn southeastward ahead of
the abovementioned trough.  There is fairly good agreement among
the global models on this scenario.

The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts are primarily based
upon guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 42.0N  37.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  08/1200Z 42.5N  32.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  09/0000Z 42.8N  26.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  09/1200Z 42.5N  22.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  10/0000Z 42.5N  19.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  11/0000Z 42.0N  14.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  12/0000Z 40.5N  11.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  13/0000Z 39.0N  10.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

JOAQUIN storm path from NHC

Time Speed Location Status
55 knots 42.0, -37.0 translation missing: en.POST-TROPICAL
50 knots 42.5, -32.5 translation missing: en.POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
45 knots 42.8, -26.5 translation missing: en.POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
40 knots 42.5, -22.0 translation missing: en.POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
35 knots 42.5, -19.0 translation missing: en.POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
35 knots 42.0, -14.5 translation missing: en.POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
35 knots 40.5, -11.0 translation missing: en.POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
35 knots 39.0, -10.5 translation missing: en.POST-TROP/EXTRATROP


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