Cyclocane

WTXS31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 032    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   291800Z --- NEAR 23.9S 68.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.9S 68.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z --- 24.8S 69.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z --- 25.7S 69.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   310600Z --- 26.7S 68.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   311800Z --- 28.1S 67.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z --- 31.6S 67.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z --- 35.3S 68.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 24.1S 68.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 679 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS
ORGANIZED AND IS PRIMARILY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 291652Z METOP-B ASCAT AMBIGUITY IMAGE
WHICH SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF
T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. THE INTENSITY IS HEDGED BETWEEN A 291159Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 71 KNOTS AND A KNES DVORAK CI OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS).
TC 22S IS EXPERIENCING UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 35
KNOTS) WHICH IS OFFSET BY AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE BETWEEN 26 AND 27 DEGREES
CELSIUS. HOWEVER, TC 22S WILL TRACK OVER UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TC 22S IS TRACKING GENERALLY
SOUTHWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE EAST. BEYOND TAU 24, INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING
DEEP LAYER LOW WILL ALLOW TC 22S TO TEMPORARILY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
BEFORE TRACKING SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL SHAPE OF THE TRACK,
INDICATING A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 12, THEN A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 AND THEN A SOUTHWARD TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. DESPITE THE GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK
SHAPE THERE IS STILL A SPREAD OF 250 NM AMONG THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS
BY TAU 72. THE SPREAD INCREASES TO 360 NM BY TAU 96. DUE TO THE
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. INTERACTION WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP LAYER LOW WILL ALLOW TC 22S TO BEGIN
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72 AND COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION
BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.//
NNNN

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

TROPICAL CYCLONE JOANINHA Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.

JOANINHA storm path from JTWC

Time	Speed	Location
2019-03-29T18:00:00.000Z	65 knots	-23.9, 68.8
2019-03-30T06:00:00.000Z	55 knots	-24.8, 69.1
2019-03-30T18:00:00.000Z	50 knots	-25.7, 69.1
2019-03-31T06:00:00.000Z	45 knots	-26.7, 68.4
2019-03-31T18:00:00.000Z	45 knots	-28.1, 67.9
2019-04-01T18:00:00.000Z	45 knots	-31.6, 67.9
2019-04-02T18:00:00.000Z	40 knots	-35.3, 68.5

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