Cyclocane

ZCZC 372
WTIO30 FMEE 131342
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/11/20212022
1.A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 (ISSA)
2.A POSITION 2022/04/13 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.1 S / 31.1 E
(THIRTY    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY ONE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 30
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/04/14 00 UTC: 30.2 S / 34.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
24H: 2022/04/14 12 UTC: 31.8 S / 37.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW
36H: 2022/04/15 00 UTC: 35.2 S / 39.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW
48H: 2022/04/15 12 UTC: 37.3 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, REMNANT
LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=/
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, ISSA CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD WHILE
APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF SOUTH AFRICA. THE CONVECTION
RAPIDLY WEAKENED ALL DAY LONG UNDER THE RESUMPTION OF A MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE EXTENSION OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
BECAME WEAK AND MAINLY CONFINED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER. THE LAST AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE DATA (MASCAT AND HY2B
OBSERVATION FROM 0230Z) STILL PLEADS FOR A NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS IN
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND LOCALLY RESIDUAL GALE FORCE WIND IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM.
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS NOW UNDERGOING AN
INCREASE IN VWS AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID AND UPPER TROPOSPHERE
TROUGH. UNDER THIS INFLUENCE ISSA SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE NEXT 12 TO
18 HOURS, A COURSE EASTWARDS WHILE ACCELERATING ITS COURSE. BEYOND
THAT, AT THE END OF THE WEEK, THE SYSTEM AT A VERY WEAKENED STAGE
WILL BE RESUMED IN FRONT OF A NEW  UPPER TROUGH, BRINGING IT MORE
FRANKLY SOUTHEASTWARDS? TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES.
DUE TO ITS POSITION WEST OF THE MID TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH, ISSA IS
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MODERATE TO STRONG VWS, WHICH SHOULD
PROGRESSIVELY ESTABLISH ITSELF WHILE INTENSIFYING IN THE SHORT TERM,
BRINGING AT THE SAME TIME DRY AIR ABOVE THE LLC, EVENTUALLY WEAKENING
THE SYSTEM DURABLY. THE SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ISSA SHOULD THEN FILL
UP IN THE SHORT TERM.
IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS (SOUTH AFRICA) :
- SINCE THIS MORNING, MORE THAN 100MM/6H HAVE FALLEN ON THE COAST OF
KWAZULU-NATAL AND EASTERN CAPE PROVINCES. AS ISSA WEAKENS AND MOVES
AWAY FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST, THE RAINFALL CHARACTER WILL DECREASE
AND WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE SEA OFF THE COAST. THE IMPROVEMENT
OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD LOGICALLY BE MORE MARKED AT THE END
OF THE DAY.
- GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BLOW UNTIL THE END OF THE DAY BETWEEN 70 AND
80 KM/H ON THE COASTS, WITH PEAKS UP TO 100 KM/H MAXIMUM IN THE NEAR
COASTAL AREA BEFORE A MORE DEFINITE IMPROVEMENT IN THE EVENING AND
NIGHT.
- SEA IS ROUGH OFFSHORE, GRADUALLY DECREASING BECOMING MODERATE IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS IS THE LAST WARNING PRODUCED BY THE RMSC ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION, PLEASE REFER TO METAREA VII SHIPPING BULLETINS
(FQIO25).=
NNNN

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ISSA Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.

ISSA storm path from meteo france

Time	Speed	Location	Status
2022-04-13T12:00:00.000Z	35 knots	-30.1, 31.1
2022-04-14T00:00:00.000Z	25 knots	-30.2, 34.4	translation missing: en.FILLING UP
2022-04-14T12:00:00.000Z	20 knots	-31.8, 37.4	translation missing: en.REMNANT
2022-04-15T00:00:00.000Z	20 knots	-35.2, 39.1	translation missing: en.REMNANT
2022-04-15T12:00:00.000Z	15 knots	-37.3, 43.1	translation missing: en.REMNANT

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