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HERMAN Current Status

Current Wind Speed 35 knots / 40 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 35 knots / 40 MPH at 2023-04-02T06:00:00.000Z

HERMAN Land Hazards

HERMAN Tracker

HERMAN Satellite Loop

HERMAN Alternate Tracking Map

HERMAN Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for HERMAN can be found here:

HERMAN spaghetti models page »

HERMAN Watches and Warnings

TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMAN Tropical Cyclone Update

TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMAN Public Advisory

WTXS31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HERMAN) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HERMAN) WARNING NR 017
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020600Z --- NEAR 19.8S 105.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 105.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z --- 19.8S 105.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z --- 19.7S 104.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 105.5E.
02APR23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HERMAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 499
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS ORGANIZED BANDING WITH VERY LITTLE
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
020144Z ASCAT-C PASS, ALONG WITH A 020232Z ASCAT-B PASS, BOTH SHOW
A SMALL PATCH OF 35 KNOT WINDS IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH
20-25 KNOT WINDS DOMINATING THE REST OF THE WIND FIELD. THE SYSTEM
ALBEIT SMALL, SOME WOULD SAY PEE-WEE, HERMAN IS UNDERGOING
DISSIPATION AT AN IMPRESSIVE, EXPEDITED RATE SIMILAR TO HOW IT
RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED ON MARCH 30TH. TC HERMAN IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT, STRONG (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND COOLER (24-25 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON MULTI-AGENCY FIXES, AS WELL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI
REVEALING THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED OFF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
ASCAT IMAGERY. TC HERMAN IS RIDING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. AS IT CONTINUES THIS
TRAJECTORY, TC HERMAN WILL FILL RAPIDLY AS ALL OF ITS MID-TO-UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE DUE TO THE HARSH
ENVIRONMENT. AN APPROACHING MAJOR LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST
WILL ABSORB THE REMNANTS OF TC 17S OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ALL AGREE
THAT TC HERMAN WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AS IT TRANSITS TO THE
NORTHWEST BEFORE IT COMPLETELY DISSIPATES AFTER TAU 24. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS
OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS
17 FEET.//
NNNN

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMAN Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.

HERMAN storm path from JTWC

Time	Speed	Location	Status
2023-04-02T06:00:00.000Z	35 knots	-19.8, 105.6	dissipating
2023-04-02T18:00:00.000Z	30 knots	-19.8, 105.0	dissipating
2023-04-03T06:00:00.000Z	30 knots	-19.7, 104.4	dissipated

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