Cyclocane
(cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker)
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FOUR-C Current Status
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE...
Current Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 50 knots / 60 MPH at
FOUR-C Land Hazards
No land hazards or hazard data not available for this storm.
FOUR-C Tracker
FOUR-C Satellite Loop
FOUR-C Alternate Tracking Map
Alternate tracking maps are only available on NHC tracked storms.
FOUR-C Spaghetti Models
Spaghetti models for FOUR-C can be found here:
FOUR-C spaghetti models page »
FOUR-C Watches and Warnings
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C Tropical Cyclone Update
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C Public Advisory
000 WTPA32 PHFO 211438 TCPCP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042015 500 AM HST FRI AUG 21 2015 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 177.2W ABOUT 515 MI...825 KM W OF JOHNSTON ISLAND ABOUT 850 MI...1365 KM S OF MIDWAY ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 177.2 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...WITH SOME SLOW ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST. $$ FORECASTER JACOBSON/BIRCHARD
Public Advisory not available for this storm.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C Forecast Discussion
000 WTPA42 PHFO 211501 TCDCP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042015 500 AM HST FRI AUG 21 2015 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN APPEARANCE DURING THE NIGHT...WITH DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH OF THE APPARENT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 1200Z CAME IN AT T2.0/30KT FROM PHFO...SAB AND JTWC. RECENT SATELLITE ANIMATIONS AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW SOME INDICATIONS THAT DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS MAY BE IMPINGING ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION...WITH DEEP CONVECTION THUS FAR UNABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF SOUTH OF THE LLCC DESPITE VERY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS ANALYZED BY THE UW-CIMSS PRODUCT. HAVE MAINTAINED THE CYCLONE AS A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. INITIAL MOTION IS ANALYZED AS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 010/03KT. THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO AROUND 170W. THE GUIDANCE SUITE REMAINS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS...INDICATING A RATHER SLOW MOTION GRADUALLY BENDING TO THE NORTHWEST...AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE THEN TURNS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTH-NORTHEAST BEYOND 72 HOURS...WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AS THE CYCLONE APPARENTLY BECOMES CAUGHT UP IN A DEEPENING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE TVCE TRACK CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN REFLECTS A FASTER MOTION TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT TAU 96 AND TAU 120...ALTHOUGH STILL NOT AS FAST AS THE TVCE OR THE ECMWF. FOUR-C IS MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATERS AND IS WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AT PRESENT. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUITE HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT FROM PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH SHIPS/LGEM NOW SHOWING ONLY VERY SLOW STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH INTENSIFICATION EITHER...WITH THE GFS NOW DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM ENTIRELY AFTER 96 HOURS. WITH NO OBVIOUS FACTORS PROHIBITING INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM...WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FOUR-C UP TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN 12 HOURS...WITH SLOW STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER THROUGH 72 HOURS. THIS IS GENERALLY HIGHER THAN SHIPS/LGEM...BUT BELOW THE IVCN CONSENSUS WHICH INCLUDES THE MUCH HIGHER INTENSITY FORECASTS OF THE GFDL MODEL. HAVE INTRODUCED A WEAKENING TREND FOR TAU 120...WHEN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES INTO HIGHER LATITUDES AND DRAWS CLOSER TO THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 15.9N 177.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 16.4N 177.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 17.2N 178.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 18.1N 179.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 19.2N 179.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 21.3N 179.7E 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 23.5N 179.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 27.0N 178.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ FORECASTER JACOBSON/BIRCHARD
FOUR-C storm path from CPHC
| Time | Speed | Location | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 knots | 15.9, -177.2 | ||
| 35 knots | 16.4, -177.4 | ||
| 40 knots | 17.2, -178.0 | ||
| 45 knots | 18.1, -179.0 | ||
| 45 knots | 19.2, -179.8 | ||
| 50 knots | 21.3, 179.7 | ||
| 50 knots | 23.5, -179.5 | ||
| 40 knots | 27.0, -178.0 |
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