( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )
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This is the final warning / advisory for this storm as it has weakened below warning levels and/or the storm system is no longer a tropical cyclone.
Current Wind Speed 45 knots / 52 MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 45 knots / 52 MPH at
Spaghetti models for COURTNEY can be found here:
COURTNEY spaghetti models page »
WTXS31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 25.0S 88.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0S 88.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 25.2S 87.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 25.1S 88.3E.
01APR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
907 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPLETELY EXPOSED,
ELONGATED, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION
HEAVILY SHEARED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 010232Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE
REVEALED THE ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH 40-45 KTS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 27S IS
PLACED WITHIN A HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
VERY HIGH (OVER 50 KTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND COOL (24-25 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TC 27S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FURTHER WESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS, ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SHALLOW
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. INTENSITY
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DROPPING IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASINGLY
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING BOTH THE WESTWARD TRACK AND THE CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND.
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS AS THE VORTEX FURTHER SHALLOWS AND BECOMES COMPLETELY TAKEN
OVER BY DRY AIR. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
010600Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 20
FEET.//
NNNN Public Advisory not available for this storm.
Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.
| Time | Speed | Location | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 knots | -25.0, 88.4 | ||
| 40 knots | -25.2, 87.9 |
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