Cyclocane
( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )
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CHENESO Current Status
Current Wind Speed 70 knots / MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 75 knots / 86 MPH at
CHENESO Land Hazards
CHENESO Tracker
CHENESO Satellite Loop
CHENESO Alternate Tracking Map
CHENESO Spaghetti Models
Spaghetti models for CHENESO can be found here:
CHENESO spaghetti models page »
CHENESO Watches and Warnings
TROPICAL CYCLONE CHENESO Tropical Cyclone Update
TROPICAL CYCLONE CHENESO Public Advisory
JTWC Advisory
WTXS31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 25.7S 41.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.7S 41.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 27.7S 43.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 30.1S 46.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 32.1S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 34.9S 56.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 26.2S 42.0E.
28JAN23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
222 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 290300Z AND 291500Z.//
NNNN meteo france Advisory
ZCZC 373 WTIO30 FMEE 281243 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 36/5/20222023 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CHENESO) 2.A POSITION 2023/01/28 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.7 S / 41.9 E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 480 SE: 610 SW: 370 NW: 260 34 KT NE: 285 SE: 285 SW: 350 NW: 175 48 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 160 NW: 130 64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 110 NW: 55 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2023/01/29 00 UTC: 27.8 S / 43.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 490 SE: 555 SW: 295 NW: 280 34 KT NE: 260 SE: 345 SW: 250 NW: 175 48 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 45 24H: 2023/01/29 12 UTC: 30.0 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 510 SE: 520 SW: 315 NW: 350 34 KT NE: 260 SE: 325 SW: 250 NW: 230 48 KT NE: 120 SE: 85 SW: 120 NW: 100 36H: 2023/01/30 00 UTC: 31.9 S / 51.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 520 SE: 435 SW: 305 NW: 415 34 KT NE: 260 SE: 280 SW: 195 NW: 240 48H: 2023/01/30 12 UTC: 34.2 S / 56.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 545 SE: 425 SW: 535 NW: 520 34 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 215 NW: 305 60H: 2023/01/31 00 UTC: 38.1 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 685 SE: 435 SW: 470 NW: 535 34 KT NE: 350 SE: 305 SW: 240 NW: 315 72H: 2023/01/31 12 UTC: 44.3 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 965 SE: 480 SW: 470 NW: 510 34 KT NE: 500 SE: 370 SW: 305 NW: 350 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=4.5 CI=4.5- OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, THE CHENESO CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE. CHENESO STILL HAS A (CDO) PATTERN, WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE REMAINED STABLE, AND A LOW-LEVEL CENTER THAT HAS REMAINED HIDDEN BENEATH THE MASS. ALTHOUGH BENEFITING FROM AN EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT, THE SYSTEM STILL ENDURES A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR, PARTLY COMPENSATED BY ITS MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EAST. THE 1037Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A CENTRAL CONVECTIVE RING ERODED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS, FOR A SHORT TIME, AT THE MINIMAL STAGE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE, CONSIDERING THE LAST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE (SATCON, ADT) AND SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN IN A SECOND TIME IN FRONT OF A HIGH TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE WEST AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND, CHENESO WILL PROGRESSIVELY ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES, REACHING THE AMSTERDAM CROZET KERGUELEN AREA, ON SUNDAY EVENING OR DURING THE NIGHT OF SUNDAY TO MONDAY . THIS SCENARIO IS CURRENTLY THE CONSENSUS AMONG ALL THE NUMERICAL MODELS. WITH A MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EAST, CHENESO STILL BENEFITS FOR A FEW HOURS, FROM A GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL AS WELL AS A VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE , IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER FROM SUNDAY, CHENESO SHOULD ENCOUNTER MUCH COOLER SURFACE WATERS, ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASE IN UPPER WINDSHEAR FAVORING THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IN THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM, AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING FROM THE WEST. CHENESO WILL THUS UNDERGO A PROGRESSIVE WEAKENING, LEADING IT TO LOSE GRADUALLY ITS TROPICAL FEATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 48H TO 72H: MADAGASCAR: - AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY, MORE MODERATE RAINFALL WILL AFFECT THE PROVINCE OF ATSIMO-ANDREFANA AND MORE PARTICULARLY THE REGION BETWEEN MOROMBE AND TULEAR WITH ACCUMULATIONS CLOSE TO 50MM. - STRONG WINDS (GALE FORCE) ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTS CLOSE TO 100 KM/H AND A DANGEROUS SEA (4 TO 6M WAVES) CONTINUE TO OCCUR ALONG THE PROVINCES OF ATSIMO-ANDREFANA AND ANDROY UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.= NNNN
TROPICAL CYCLONE CHENESO Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.
CHENESO storm path from cyclocane hybrid
| Time | Speed | Location | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 knots | -25.7, 41.9 | ||
| 50 knots | -27.8, 43.6 | translation missing: en.SEVERE | |
| 50 knots | -30.0, 46.6 | translation missing: en.SEVERE | |
| 45 knots | -31.9, 51.1 | ||
| 45 knots | -34.2, 56.3 | ||
| 40 knots | -38.1, 62.0 | ||
| 45 knots | -44.3, 69.2 |
CHENESO storm path from JTWC
| Time | Speed | Location | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75 knots | -25.7, 41.5 | ||
| 70 knots | -27.7, 43.4 | ||
| 60 knots | -30.1, 46.7 | ||
| 50 knots | -32.1, 51.2 | ||
| 45 knots | -34.9, 56.8 |
CHENESO storm path from meteo france
| Time | Speed | Location | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 knots | -25.7, 41.9 | ||
| 50 knots | -27.8, 43.6 | translation missing: en.SEVERE | |
| 50 knots | -30.0, 46.6 | translation missing: en.SEVERE | |
| 45 knots | -31.9, 51.1 | ||
| 45 knots | -34.2, 56.3 | ||
| 40 knots | -38.1, 62.0 | ||
| 45 knots | -44.3, 69.2 |
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