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Other future tropical cyclones: Kyle Winnie Pena Akvan Bertrand Owen Xavier
Per current tropical weather outlooks, the highest current potential of a new tropical cyclone in this basin is low.
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 04NOV26 1200Z, TYPHOON 30W (IN-FA) WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N
138.4E, APPROXIMATELY 168 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF IWO TO, AND HAD TRACKED
NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS GUSTING TO 100 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31
PGTW 041500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.0N
159.9E, APPROXIMATELY 890 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 99W AS A TROPICAL WAVE PROPAGATING
WESTWARD WITH ENHANCED WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WHILE LACKING
A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT EQUATORWARD THE WAVE. THIS IS MADE EVIDENT IN
A 041013Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS, WHICH ALSO REVEALED 20-25 KNOT EASTERLIES
TO THE NORTH OF THE WAVE AXIS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF
(10-15 KTS) AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) OFFSET BY WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS
DEPICT GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT TRANSITS GENERALLY
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. site by Hayley Croft
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