Cyclocane
( cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley )
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This is the final warning / advisory for this storm as it has weakened below warning levels and/or the storm system is no longer a tropical cyclone.
ALICIA Current Status
Current Wind Speed 30 knots / MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 30 knots / MPH at
ALICIA Land Hazards
ALICIA Tracker
ALICIA Satellite Loop
ALICIA Alternate Tracking Map
ALICIA Spaghetti Models
Spaghetti models for ALICIA can be found here:
ALICIA spaghetti models page »
ALICIA Watches and Warnings
FILLING UP ALICIA Tropical Cyclone Update
FILLING UP ALICIA Public Advisory
ZCZC 900 WTIO30 FMEE 170617 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/1/20202021 1.A FILLING UP 1 (ALICIA) 2.A POSITION 2020/11/17 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.9 S / 71.8 E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH 3 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/3.0/W 2.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 110 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2020/11/17 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP 24H: 2020/11/18 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP 36H: 2020/11/18 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP 48H: 2020/11/19 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT LOW 60H: 2020/11/19 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT LOW 72H: 2020/11/20 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT LOW 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=2.0- CI=3.0- OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, DRY AIR COVERED THE ENTIRE SYSTEM AND NO CONVECTIVE BURST OCCURRED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. 0314Z ASCAT SWATH SHOWED MAX WINDS OF 30 KT AND NO GALE FORCE WINDS. THE RSMC INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS THUS BASED ON THIS SCATT OBSERVATION DATA RATHER THAN THE DVORAK ANALYSIS, WHICH OVERESTIMATES THE INTENSITY IN THIS RAPID WEAKENING CASE. ALICIA HAS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED DOWN OVER THE LAST HOURS, AS THE STEERING FLOW IS COMING DOWN IN THE LOW-LEVELS. TODAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD STILL TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. HOWEVER, FROM TOMORROW, A HIGH PRESSURE CELL IN THE SOUTH SHOULD BLOCK ITS DESCENT. THUS, THE REMAININGS OF ALICIA ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD AT FIRST, BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH THURSDAY. THE MODEL DISPERSION IS QUITE HIGH BUT ALL SHARE THE SAME PHILOSOPHY. THE RSMC TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON AN IFS/GFS CONSENSUS. ALICIA CONTINUES ON ITS RAPID WEAKENING PHASE. THERE IS NO MORE OCEANIC POTENTIAL. THE SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN TODAY BUT IS INCREASING AGAIN AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO REINTENSIFICATION IS AWAITED, THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON SLOWLY FILLING UP. THIS IS THE LAST WARNING CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM, EXCEPT REINTENSIFICATION.= NNNN
Public Advisory not available for this storm.
FILLING UP ALICIA Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.
ALICIA storm path from meteo france
| Time | Speed | Location | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 knots | -16.9, 71.8 | ||
| 30 knots | -18.3, 71.2 | translation missing: en.FILLING UP | |
| 25 knots | -19.6, 69.9 | translation missing: en.FILLING UP | |
| 25 knots | -20.2, 68.3 | translation missing: en.FILLING UP | |
| 20 knots | -20.6, 66.8 | translation missing: en.REMNANT | |
| 20 knots | -21.7, 66.1 | translation missing: en.REMNANT | |
| 20 knots | -22.8, 66.5 | translation missing: en.REMNANT |
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