Cyclocane

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3 Current Status

Current Wind Speed 30 knots / MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 55 knots / MPH at 2024-01-26T06:00:00.000Z

3 Land Hazards

3 Tracker

3 Satellite Loop

3 Alternate Tracking Map

3 Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for 3 can be found here:

3 spaghetti models page »

3 Watches and Warnings

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 Tropical Cyclone Update

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 Public Advisory

ZCZC 538
WTIO30 FMEE 240629
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/3/20232024
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3
2.A POSITION 2024/01/24 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 57.5 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 270 SW: 0 NW: 335
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/24 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 260 SW: 150 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 110 SW: 55 NW: 120
24H: 2024/01/25 06 UTC: 22.4 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 230 SW: 100 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 95
36H: 2024/01/25 18 UTC: 24.5 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 305 SW: 390 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 0
48H: 2024/01/26 06 UTC: 26.3 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 455 SW: 435 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 260 SW: 250 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 85 NW: 55
60H: 2024/01/26 18 UTC: 27.5 S / 61.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 510 SW: 425 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 285 SW: 250 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 0
72H: 2024/01/27 06 UTC: 29.0 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 480 SW: 400 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SW: 175 NW: 85
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/01/28 06 UTC: 32.1 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 155 SW: 0 NW: 140
120H: 2024/01/29 06 UTC: 33.6 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
PT=CI=2.5
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. THE SUMMITS REMAIN QUITE COLD.
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEMS TO BE BETTER DEFINED, WITH THE
0507UTC ASCAT SWATH ALLOWING 30KT WINDS TO BE MEASURED IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. IN A BAND CONFIGURATION THAT IS NOT YET WELL
DEFINED, A DVORAK ANALYSIS IN 2.5 PT CONFIRMS 30KT VALUES. PRESSURE
MEASUREMENTS ON MAURITIUS WITH CORRECTION ALLOW US TO ESTIMATE THE
PRESSURE AT THE CENTER AT 995HPA. THE BAPTISM THRESHOLD IS NOT TOO
FAR AWAY.
IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE FIRST STAGES REMAIN TRICKY DUE TO THE STILL
BROAD STRUCTURE OF THE CIRCULATION. CURRENTLY LOOPING OR
QUASI-STATIONARY TO THE NORTH OF MAURITIUS, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EASTWARDS. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SOUTH-WESTERLY TROUGH TODAY AND THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH-EAST, THE MAIN FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY TURN NORTH-WESTERLY, FAVORING AN ACCELERATING MOVEMENT TO
THE SOUTH-EAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK HAS
IMPROVED, WITH A CONSENSUS AMONG ALL THE NUMERICAL MODELS. AT THE END
OF THE WEEK, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH-WEST AND THEN EAST, AND THE EASING OF THE MAIN FLOW, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 3 SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN SOUTH-WEST.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 IS BENEFITING IN THE SHORT TERM FROM EXCELLENT
CONVERGENCE ON THE EQUATORIAL COAST, WITH A POWERFUL MONSOON FLOW.
INTENSIFICATION IS BEGINNING AND SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 36-48H
THANKS TO AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (STRONG OCEANIC
POTENTIAL, DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE). IT SHOULDN'T BE TOO LONG BEFORE THE 34KT THRESHOLD IS
CROSSED. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 COULD THEN REACH THE STAGE OF A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A
GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THIS INTENSIFICATION, SINCE THE
MODELS ARE NOT ALL CONVERGING AS TO THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM'S
CORE. THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE MORE INFORMATIVE AS TO THE GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION CHOSEN. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, THE STRENGTHENING OF
THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AND THE SIGNIFICANT DROP IN OCEANIC
POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 25S SHOULD ENCOURAGE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OR EVEN
EXTRATROPICALIZE.
EXPECTED IMPACTS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
MAURITIUS:
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT.
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE UP TO THURSDAY. RAINFALL RANGING FORM 50 TO
200MM IN 24H ESPECIALLY IN THE HILLS.
- VERY ROUGH SEA 4M FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING.
REUNION :
- NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT.
- HEAVY RAIN ON THE SOUTHERN PART UP TO FRIDAY MORNING. TOTAL
RAINFALL AROUND 100 TO 200MM IN 24HRS, REACHING 300 TO 500MM ON
EXPOSED SLOPES.
- VERY ROUGH SEA 4M FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING.
RODRIGUES :
- VERY ROUGH SEA 4M FROM WEDNESDAY.=
NNNN

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.

3 storm path from meteo france

Time	Speed	Location	Status
2024-01-24T06:00:00.000Z	30 knots	-19.9, 57.5
2024-01-24T18:00:00.000Z	35 knots	-20.8, 58.5	translation missing: en.MODERATE
2024-01-25T06:00:00.000Z	45 knots	-22.4, 59.5	translation missing: en.MODERATE
2024-01-25T18:00:00.000Z	50 knots	-24.5, 60.9	translation missing: en.SEVERE
2024-01-26T06:00:00.000Z	55 knots	-26.3, 61.7	translation missing: en.SEVERE
2024-01-26T18:00:00.000Z	50 knots	-27.5, 61.2	translation missing: en.SEVERE
2024-01-27T06:00:00.000Z	45 knots	-29.0, 60.1
2024-01-28T06:00:00.000Z	30 knots	-32.1, 58.3
2024-01-29T06:00:00.000Z	25 knots	-33.6, 60.3

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