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This storm is unnamed. If the information appears to be out of date, its name may have changed, so visit the main page for the latest information.
Current Wind Speed 35 knots / MPH
Max Predicted Wind Speed 50 knots / MPH at
Spaghetti models for 26U can be found here:
IDW27600 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0700 UTC 06/04/2017 Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 26U Data At: 0600 UTC Latitude: 13.4S Longitude: 111.0E Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km] Movement Towards: south southwest [196 deg] Speed of Movement: 5 knots [10 km/h] Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h] Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h] Central Pressure: 1000 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km] Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km] Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: Radius of Maximum Winds: Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km] FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure [UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa +06: 06/1200: 13.7S 110.9E: 050 [095]: 035 [065]: 998 +12: 06/1800: 14.2S 110.9E: 065 [120]: 035 [065]: 998 +18: 07/0000: 14.6S 111.2E: 075 [140]: 040 [075]: 995 +24: 07/0600: 14.9S 111.4E: 090 [165]: 040 [075]: 995 +36: 07/1800: 15.4S 111.8E: 110 [200]: 050 [095]: 988 +48: 08/0600: 15.9S 111.4E: 130 [235]: 045 [085]: 992 +60: 08/1800: 16.3S 110.5E: 150 [275]: 045 [085]: 992 +72: 09/0600: 16.8S 109.0E: 165 [310]: 040 [075]: 993 +96: 10/0600: 18.0S 105.1E: 210 [390]: 035 [065]: 1006 +120: 11/0600: 19.6S 100.8E: 300 [555]: 030 [055]: 1006 REMARKS: Tropical low [26U] was located using visible and microwave imagery together with recent ASCAT passes. 26U has developed considerably overnight. Initial T1 classification was assigned at 05/0600 UTC. Dvorak Analysis: Curved band wrap of between 0.4 and 0.5 [with some breaks in convection] gives a DT of 2.5 [a shear pattern would yield DTs of 3.0]. Trend was D+ and MET/PAT was 2.5. FT/CI set to 2.5. Intensity set to 35 knots with gales in the NW and SW quadrants. Most recent visible imagery showed a slight weakening in the structure of the system. ASCAT passes around 02 UTC showed gales in the NW and SW quadrants. This is consistent with microwave imagery earlier in the day with persistent deep convection in those quadrants. SSTs are 29-30C and ocean heat content is favourable. CIMSS showed good poleward outflow and upper divergence. CIMSS shear of 15/20 knots appears a little higher than satellite imagery would suggest. The system is forecast to become a tropical cyclone during Friday. Given the lack of strong synoptic forcing, the intensity may fluctuate somewhat. Intensification to category 2 is possible for a period. The presence of dry air and increasing shear late Sunday should cause the system to weaken, however, gales may persist in southern quadrants due to the pressure gradient associated with a ridge of high pressure to the south. The system is being steered towards the south southeast due to an upper trough passing to the south. On Saturday, a building mid level ridge will steer the system towards the southwest. The majority of NWP guidance is consistent with the forecast track. Tropical low [26U] is not expected to produce gales at Christmas Island or the WA mainland. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 06/1330 UTC by Perth TCWC.
Public Advisory not available for this storm.
Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.
Time | Speed | Location | Status |
---|---|---|---|
35 knots | -13.4, 111.0 | ||
35 knots | -13.7, 110.9 | ||
35 knots | -14.2, 110.9 | ||
40 knots | -14.6, 111.2 | ||
40 knots | -14.9, 111.4 | ||
50 knots | -15.4, 111.8 | ||
45 knots | -15.9, 111.4 | ||
45 knots | -16.3, 110.5 | ||
40 knots | -16.8, 109.0 | ||
35 knots | -18.0, 105.1 | ||
30 knots | -19.6, 100.8 |
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