Cyclocane

ZCZC 633
WTIO30 FMEE 201344 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
PLEASE READ 10.6S IN PLACE OF 10.8S
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/16/20202021
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16
2.A POSITION 2021/04/20 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.6 S / 51.1 E
(TEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/0 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 75 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/04/21 00 UTC: 10.2 S / 49.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 195 SW: 120 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 45
24H: 2021/04/21 12 UTC: 9.9 S / 47.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 220 SW: 120 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 45 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35
36H: 2021/04/22 00 UTC: 9.8 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 215 SW: 140 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35
48H: 2021/04/22 12 UTC: 9.8 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35
60H: 2021/04/23 00 UTC: 9.6 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 45
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 30
72H: 2021/04/23 12 UTC: 9.3 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 85 NW: 35
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/04/24 12 UTC: 9.3 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2021/04/25 12 UTC: 8.2 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5
THE SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF BETTER ORGANIZATION, AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS
THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR THIS THUESDAY.
THE LAST ASCAT SWATH OF THIS MORNING INDICATE WINDS OF 30 KT IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CERCLE, MORE LOCALLY 35KT, IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT
OF THE SYSTEM, BUT WITH A STRUCTURE THAT REMAINS ASYMMETRIC
(SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER WINDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE).
THE AMSR2 MICROWAVE PASS OF 0951Z SHOWS THE BEGINNING OF AN
ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM, WITH A BUILDING EYE IN 37GHZ.
THERE IS A GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ABOUT THE SYSTEM'S TRACK
UNTIL WEDNESDAY, WITH A WESTWARD MOVEMENT ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
LOW TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, TRACKING IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE
FARQUHAR ATOLL AND OFF NORTHERN MADAGASCAR. FROM WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL REACH THE NORTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL AND OFF THE COMOROS, THE STEERING FLOWS BECOME WEAKER AND THE
TRAJECTORY IS MORE UNCERTAIN , MARKING A SLOWDOWN ACCORDING TO MOST
OF THE MODELS IN THE NORTH OF THE COMOROS. IN CONSEQUENCES, THE MORE
OR LESS IMPORTANT INFLUENCE ON THE NORTH OF THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO
REMAINS TO BE SPECIFIED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY FAVORABLE TO SHORT TERM
DEVELOPMENT : IN THE LOW LAYERS, A TRADEWINDS SURGE IS ONGOING,
REINFORCED TOMORROW BY THE ACCELERATION RELATED TO THE BYPASS OF THE
NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THE POLEWARD LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER, DURING THIS TIME, THE EQUATORWARD
CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK TO VERY WEAK, WHICH BRINGS UNCERTAINTY ON
THE MORE OR LESS EFFICIENT CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW'S INNER CORE.
ALOFT, DEEP SHEAR IS WEAK AND SHOULD REMAIN SO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
(AROUND 10 KT OR LESS), AND NO INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE SHOULD INTERFERE WITH CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE OF THE
SYSTEM UNTIL WEDNESDAY. UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC DIVERGENCE IS QUITE GOOD
WITH A TEMPORARY LIGHT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IN THE SHORT RUN
ON THUESDAY, THEN, FROM MID-WEEK, AN INCREASE OF UPPER DIVERGENCE ON
THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH CIRCULATING FURTHER SOUTH. ON THE
OTHER HAND, THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS PRESENT WITH SST AROUND 28-29C
AND A GRADUAL INCREASE OF THE DEPTH OF THE ISO-26C, BECOMING HIGHER
IN THE NORTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THUS, CONDITIONS SEEM TO BE
GATHERED FOR MODERATE INTENSIFICATION UNTIL WEDNESDAY, PROBABLY UNTIL
THE STAGE OF A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM OR EVEN SEVERE TROPICAL STORM.
FROM THURSDAY, THE INCREASE OF THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AT MIDDLE
LEVEL ALONG A TROUGH PASSING OVER THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD TILT
THE CONVECTIVE CORE AND WEAKEN IT BY ADVECTING DRY AIR. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM IN THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK.
THE SMALL SIZE OF THE LOW'S CORE, MAKING IT VERY REACTIVE TO ITS
ENVIRONMENT, INDUCES A HIGHER THAN AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY ON THE PRESENT
INTENSITY FORECAST.=
NNNN

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16 Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.

16 storm path from meteo france

Time	Speed	Location	Status
2021-04-20T12:00:00.000Z	30 knots	-10.6, 51.1
2021-04-21T00:00:00.000Z	40 knots	-10.2, 49.4	translation missing: en.MODERATE
2021-04-21T12:00:00.000Z	50 knots	-9.9, 47.9	translation missing: en.SEVERE
2021-04-22T00:00:00.000Z	55 knots	-9.8, 46.6	translation missing: en.SEVERE
2021-04-22T12:00:00.000Z	50 knots	-9.8, 45.7	translation missing: en.SEVERE
2021-04-23T00:00:00.000Z	40 knots	-9.6, 44.8	translation missing: en.MODERATE
2021-04-23T12:00:00.000Z	30 knots	-9.3, 44.0	translation missing: en.TROPICAL
2021-04-24T12:00:00.000Z	25 knots	-9.3, 42.1	translation missing: en.FILLING UP
2021-04-25T12:00:00.000Z	20 knots	-8.2, 39.3	translation missing: en.OVERLAND

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