Cyclocane

ZCZC 973
WTIO30 FMEE 070107
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/13/20212022
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13
2.A POSITION 2022/05/07 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.1 S / 88.5 E
(EIGHT    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/05/07 12 UTC: 9.3 S / 89.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 335 SW: 280 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 130
24H: 2022/05/08 00 UTC: 10.1 S / 89.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 405 SW: 315 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 150
36H: 2022/05/08 12 UTC: 10.7 S / 90.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 325 SW: 305 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 150
48H: 2022/05/09 00 UTC: 11.7 S / 90.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 335 SW: 295 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35
60H: 2022/05/09 12 UTC: 13.0 S / 91.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35
72H: 2022/05/10 00 UTC: 14.7 S / 91.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 110
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/05/11 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 94.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 100
120H: 2022/05/12 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 95.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 130
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0
A CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED SINCE THURSDAY OVER THE
NORTHEAST OF THE BASIN, DRIVEN BY AN EQUATORIAL WESTERLY WIND BURST
TRIGGERED BY VARIOUS EQUATORIAL WAVES CROSSING EACH OTHER OVER THE
EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN (MJO, EQUATORIAL ROSSBY WAVE AND KELVIN WAVE),
WHICH, BY THE WAY, HAS ALSO GIVEN BIRTH TO ANOTHER SYMMETRIC TWIN
VORTEX IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE.
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM 13-20212022
HAS REMAINED VERY INTENSE WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS (LESS THAN -85C).
THE INITIALLY ASYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE HAS RECENTLY BECOME MORE
SYMMETRICAL JUST BEFORE 00UTC, ESPECIALLY DUE TO A STRONG CONVECTIVE
BURST ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. A 2218Z SSMIS-F16
MICRO-WAVE IMAGE SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED STRUCTURE WITH A CURVED
BAND PATTERN STARTING TO FORM. ASSOCIATED DVORAK ANALYSIS GIVES A DT
OF 2.0. THESE RECENT EVOLUTIONS, AS WELL AS EXTRAPOLATED ASCAT DATA
FROM LAST NIGHT, HINT THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE IS VERY CLOSE
(IF NOT ALREADY REACHED), BUT WITHOUT FURTHER OBJECTIVE DATA,
INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 25KT AND AT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STAGE. IT IS
NEVERTHELESS POSSIBLE THAT NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS COULD BE PRESENT
LOCALLY.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FOLLOW A SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, BOTH UNDER THE DYNAMICS OF THE EQUATORIAL WESTERLY WIND
BURST AND ON THE EDGE OF A RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM,
THEN ALSO ATTRACTED BY A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FROM MONDAY. FROM TUESDAY, THERE IS STRONG DISPERSION AMONG
AVAILABLE MODEL OUTPUT, THE FUTURE TRACK DEPENDING ON HOW INTENSE THE
SYSTEM WILL BE AT THIS TIME AND BECAUSE OF POTENTIALLY CONTRADICTORY
STEERING FLOWS : THE SYSTEM COULD BE EITHER DRIVEN SOUTH-EASTWARDS BY
THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (IF THE SYSTEM KEEPS GOOD INTENSITY) OR
MOVE BACK NORTHWESTWARDS THEN WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A
SUBTROPICAL LOW-TROPOSPHERE HIGH (IF THE SYSTEM WEAKENS). ACCORDING
TO THE MEDIAN TRACK FOLLOWED BY THE RSMC, THE SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS
INTO THE AUSTRALIAN AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY, EAST OF 90E, FROM SUNDAY
OR FOLLOWING NIGHT, ALTHOUGH TIMING IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM BENEFITS FROM A RELATIVELY
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT IN THE SHORT-TERM DEVELOPMENT. WITH ITS
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD EASE A BIT THIS
SATURDAY, WHICH, WITH VERY GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE (SOUTHWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL), A SUFFICIENTLY HUMID ENVIRONMENT AND GOOD SURFACE
CONVERGENCE, SHOULD ALLOW TO REACH MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE THIS
SATURDAY, AND PROBABLY SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. FROM TUESDAY, INCREASING NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR INTRUSION, RELATED TO THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, SHOULD WEAKEN IT.
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.=
NNNN

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13 Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.

13 storm path from meteo france

Time	Speed	Location	Status
2022-05-07T00:00:00.000Z	25 knots	-8.1, 88.5
2022-05-07T12:00:00.000Z	35 knots	-9.3, 89.0	translation missing: en.MODERATE
2022-05-08T00:00:00.000Z	40 knots	-10.1, 89.6	translation missing: en.MODERATE
2022-05-08T12:00:00.000Z	45 knots	-10.7, 90.0	translation missing: en.MODERATE
2022-05-09T00:00:00.000Z	50 knots	-11.7, 90.6	translation missing: en.SEVERE
2022-05-09T12:00:00.000Z	50 knots	-13.0, 91.2	translation missing: en.SEVERE
2022-05-10T00:00:00.000Z	45 knots	-14.7, 91.8	translation missing: en.MODERATE
2022-05-11T00:00:00.000Z	35 knots	-18.4, 94.3	translation missing: en.REMNANT
2022-05-12T00:00:00.000Z	35 knots	-16.9, 95.0	translation missing: en.REMNANT

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