Cyclocane

ZCZC 591
WTIO30 FMEE 231228
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/12/20212022
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 12
2.A POSITION 2022/04/23 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0 S / 40.0 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 280 SW: 185 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/04/24 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 350 SW: 250 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 0
24H: 2022/04/24 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 370 SW: 260 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 95
36H: 2022/04/25 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 380 SW: 280 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55
48H: 2022/04/25 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 400 SW: 285 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55
60H: 2022/04/26 00 UTC: 20.8 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 405 SW: 295 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 95
72H: 2022/04/26 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 425 SW: 315 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 95
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/04/27 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 455 SW: 335 NW: 140
120H: 2022/04/28 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=/
THE SYSTEM'S CENTER MADE LANDFALL OVER MOZAMBIQUE'S PROVINCE OF
NAMPULA THIS MORNING JUST BEFORE 06Z AND HAS SINCE BEEN MOVING
PARALLEL TO THE COAST VERY NEAR TO THE SEABOARD IN A SOUTHWESTWARD
THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. CONVECTION HAS REMAINED ACTIVE
OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE BUT
NATURALLY MUCH WEAKER OVERLAND, LEAVING THE LOW-LEVEL VORTEX
TEMPORARILY EXPOSED THIS AFTERNOON. FOLLOWING THIS MORNING'S ASCAT
DATA, THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 30KT, WITH A VERY
ASYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE DUE TO ITS POSITION HALF OVER LAND AND HALF
OVER SEA.
THE SYSTEM KEEPS MOVING ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THIS SATURDAY NIGHT,
GUIDED ALONG THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF A LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED OFF THE SOUTH-EAST OF MADAGASCAR. AN APPROACHING TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN AFRICA SHOULD GRADUALLY ATTRACT THE SYSTEM ON A MORE
SOUTHWARD DIRECTION FROM SUNDAY, THEN SOUTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY. THE
STEERING FLOW WILL THEN HAVE SHIFTED TO THE MID-LEVELS AS THE SYSTEM
INTENSIFIES, CHANNELING IT BETWEEN THE TROUGH LOCATED TO ITS
SOUTH-WEST AND THE RIDGE REMAINING TO ITS EAST AND SOUTH-EAST. ON
TUESDAY, WHILE THE TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND THEN A NEW RIDGE BUILDS UP OVER SOUTHERN
AFRICA AROUND MID-WEEK, COMBINED WITH THE SYSTEM'S WEAKENING, THE
TRACK SHOULD TURN BACK NORTHWARDS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS. THERE STILL
IS STRONG DISPERSION AMONG AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, WHICH MAKE THE SYSTEM
TRACK MORE OR LESS NEAR THE COASTS OF MADAGASCAR OR MOZAMBIQUE. THE
RSMC'S TRACK IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST EUROPEAN ENSEMBLIST AND
DETERMINISTIC RUNS, LEAVING THE SYSTEM AT SEA IN THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL UNTIL ITS DISSIPATION.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RATHER
CONDUCIVE UNTIL MONDAY. THUS, ONCE THE LOW MOVES BACK TO SEA OVER THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL FROM TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, INTENSIFICATION SHOULD
RESUME THANKS TO VERY GOOD OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT, LOW TO MODERATE WIND
SHEAR AND VERY GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THUS, INTENSIFICATION TO THE STAGE OF MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM THEN SEVERE TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. IT COULD EVEN POSSIBLY TRY TO BRIEFLY REACH TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE. FROM TUESDAY, INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR COMBINED WITH
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEFORE
EXPECTED DISSIPATION BY THE MIDDLE OR END OF THE WEEK.
IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS:
- GUSTS OF 70-90 OR EVEN 100 KM/H ALONG THE COASTS OF NAMPULA
PROVINCE (MOZAMBIQUE), UP TO 120 KM/H OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND.
- RAINFALL NEAR 100 MM IN 24H NEAR THE COAST OF NAMPULA AND ZAMBEZIA
PROVINCES UNTIL SUNDAY.
- ROUGH TO LOCALLY VERY ROUGH SEAS THIS WEEKEND OFF THE MOZAMBICAN
COASTS WITH WAVES OF ABOUT 4 TO 5 METERS, GRADUALLY EASING BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY.=
NNNN

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

OVERLAND DEPRESSION 12 Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion not available for this storm.

12 storm path from meteo france

Time	Speed	Location	Status
2022-04-23T12:00:00.000Z	30 knots	-16.0, 40.0
2022-04-24T00:00:00.000Z	35 knots	-17.0, 39.8	translation missing: en.MODERATE
2022-04-24T12:00:00.000Z	45 knots	-18.2, 39.8	translation missing: en.MODERATE
2022-04-25T00:00:00.000Z	60 knots	-19.3, 39.9	translation missing: en.SEVERE
2022-04-25T12:00:00.000Z	55 knots	-20.1, 40.1	translation missing: en.SEVERE
2022-04-26T00:00:00.000Z	45 knots	-20.8, 40.5	translation missing: en.MODERATE
2022-04-26T12:00:00.000Z	35 knots	-20.8, 41.0	translation missing: en.MODERATE
2022-04-27T12:00:00.000Z	30 knots	-18.7, 41.8	translation missing: en.REMNANT
2022-04-28T12:00:00.000Z	20 knots	-16.0, 42.2

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